The Iowa Football team returned to Iowa City this past Saturday for a meeting against Big Ten newcomer Washington. The Hawkeyes dominated the Huskies 40-16 to move to 4-2 on the season and now, they go back on the road this week to face the Michigan State Spartans. It will be the 50th all-time meeting between the two programs, with Iowa leading the series 25-22-2. The Hawkeyes will be visiting East Lansing for just the third time since winning on the final play back in 2009.
The Spartans are led by first-year head coach Jonathan Smith , who came over from Oregon State after posting a 34-35 record over six seasons with the Beavers. This season, Michigan State started the season 3-0, including a win at Maryland, but they’ve lost three straight, including back-to-back games to Ohio State and Oregon by a combined score of 69-17.
Iowa opened as a 6.5-point favorite in this game and the Hawkeyes have performed well as road favorites, posting a 20-6-1 record against the spread over the last ten seasons. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 as road favorites, including a 31-14 win over Minnesota (-2.5) this season.
SPARTANS OFFENSE
2024 Numbers: 19.8 PPG (118th), 120.2 RUSH (102nd), 229.7 PASS (67th), 349.8 TOTAL (103rd)
The Michigan State offense is led by sophomore Oregon State transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles . A former four-star offered by Oregon State, Oregon, Washington and Kansas State out of high school, Chiles is dual threat quarterback. Through six games, he has completed 86 of 152 (56.6%) passes for five touchdowns, but has also thrown eight interceptions, which is the second-most by any Big Ten passer. He has rushed for 193 yards on 33 carries (5.8 ypc) and three touchdowns, which is certainly something to watch with an offensive line that has struggled.
Joining him in the backfield are a pair of backs that will split the workload. UMass transfer Kay’ron Lynch Adams has rushed for 358 yards on 67 carries (5.0 ypc), while Nathan Carter has totaled 272 yards on 58 carries (4.2 ypc). Neither is a huge threat out of the backfield, as the two have combined for just eight catches on 13 targets.
At wide receiver, the Spartans have a pair of talented pass catchers, starting with true freshman Nick Marsh . A four-star recruit, Marsh selected MSU over offers from Oregon, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Michigan and Penn State. He has caught 16 passes for 320 yards and one touchdown, while his 20.0 yards per reception ranks second in the Big Ten. The second part of the tandem at wideout is senior Montorie Foster . After a breakout season a year ago (43 rec, 576 yds), Foster leads the Spartans with 22 receptions for 274 yards (12.5 ypr) and one touchdown. Marsh and Foster have combined to receive 40.6% of the targets.
A couple other names to know, tight end Jack Velling has 19 catches for 238 yards (12.5 ypr), while sophomore wide receiver Jaron Glover has totaled 11 catches for 150 yards (13.6 ypr) and two touchdowns.
The Spartans offensive line is an area of concern for them, and an area of opportunity for the Hawkeye defense to cause some chaos. Per Pro Football Focus, MSU ranks 83rd in run blocking grade (60.1) and 131st in pass blocking (44.6). Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been pressured on 60 of 178 drop backs (33.7%), including 13 times on 25 drop backs against Oregon last week.
SPARTANS DEFENSE
2024 Numbers: 21.0 PPG (45th), 130.8 RUSH (59th), 199.0 PASS (47th), 329.8 TOTAL (37th)
Starting up front on the Michigan State defensive line, the Spartans are led by edge rusher Khris Bogle and tackle D’Quan Douse . Formerly a Florida transfer, Bogle is in his second year at MSU. He has totaled 22 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, and 3.0 sacks. Meanwhile, a transfer from Georgia Tech, Douse (69.3) is the highest-graded player on the MSU defensive line. He has 17 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and one sack. As a whole, the Spartans have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, ranking 16th in the Big Ten in pressures (75). Other names to know up front include, end Anthony Jones (12.0 tkls, 2.0 sks) and MTSU transfer end Quindarius Dunnigan (7.0 tkls, 3.0 tfls).
The strength of the Michigan State defense is at linebacker, where they are led by Wisconsin transfer Jordan Turner and senior Cal Haladay . Turner was third on the Badgers (61 tkls) in tackles last season and now leads the Spartans with 37 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, three sacks and one interception. He is the second-highest graded (72.3) starter on the defense. Meanwhile, Cal Haladay led the team in tackles last season (91 tkls) and is third on the team with 28 tackles this season. Rounding out the starting linebacker group is Old Dominion transfer Wayne Matthews III . He led ODU with 135 tackles last season and has totaled 21 tackles this season.
The Michigan State secondary ranks 117th in the country in coverage grade (59.0), but the highest-graded player on the Spartan defense plays corner. Charles Brantley (78.0 PFF grade) has totaled 23 tackles, while he leads the team in interceptions (3) and pass broken up (5). In coverage, he has allowed just 12 receptions on 28 targets (42.8%) for 106 yards.
The rest of the secondary has really struggled, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 57 of 82 (69.5%) passes for 744 yards (13.05 ypr). In terms of names to know, safety Malik Spencer (29 tkls, 1 INT), safety Nikai Martinez (25 tkls, 1 INT), safety Angelo Grose (23 tkls, 1 INT) and corner Ed Woods (22 tkls, 2.0 tfls) will garner almost all of the snaps. Those four, plus Brantley are five of the top eight on the MSU defense in terms of snaps played this season.
SPARTANS SPECIAL TEAMS
Kick Returner Kayron Lynch-Adams: 3 returns, 23 yards, LNG 13
Punter Returner Montorie Foster Jr: 4 returns, 9.5 AVG, LNG 24
Kicker Jonathan Kim: 9/9 FG, 11/12 PAT, LNG 51
Punter Ryan Eckley: 23 punts, 1103 yds, 47.9 AVG, 3 In20, LNG 61
FINAL THOUGHTS
If the Hawkeyes play the way that they did against Washington on Saturday, then they should have no issue taking care of the Spartans. The Michigan State defense has been decent this season, but they have really struggled to stop the run the last two weeks against quality opponents. Look for Iowa to succeed in the run game with Kaleb Johnson and pressure Aidan Chiles into a mistake or two.
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