November-like chill in Northeast to be erased by warm weekend

Don't wax the skis yet! The clock is ticking on a November-like weather pattern with much warmer conditions and sunshine on tap just in time for the weekend in the Northeast.

Conditions more typical of the middle of November will persist in the northeastern United States into Thursday. Following the cold winds, chaotic rain showers and even pockets of snow, a marked turnaround is in store just in time for the weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

This image, captured on Tuesday afternoon, Oct. 15, 2024, shows the chaotic cloud cover created by cold air in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere. The pattern depicts true intervals of clouds and sunshine at ground level with passing rain (and snow) showers. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)

"Temperatures into Thursday will run 8-15 degrees below the historical average for the middle of October," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said, "That translates to highs in the low to middle 40s over the higher elevations and the 50s along much of Interstate 95, except for the low 60s in eastern Virginia."

A pocket of chilly air high in the atmosphere, which is much colder than near the ground, will create areas of clouds and stir up gusty wind during the day.

The combination of cold air and breezes will produce AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the 30s over the interior Northeast and mainly in the 40s closer to the Atlantic coast.

Spotty showers will accompany the cold air, and they could be enhanced by the warm water from the Great Lakes adding moisture to the air.

Where the air is cold enough, snow or a mixture of rain and wet snow will fall, mainly over the higher elevations from West Virginia to Maine. Some of the ridges will continue to have periodic coatings of snow.

Cloud cover and breezy conditions will generally prevent an initial frost or freeze. As high pressure settles in and brings a mainly clear sky and light winds later this week, frosts and freezes will become more extensive during the late-night and early-morning hours.

The pattern will bring an end to the growing season for much of the Midwest and the interior Northeast by the time warmer air arrives this weekend.

Temperatures to 'fall back' starting this weekend

A big dip in the jet stream will be replaced by a large area of high pressure.

While the look and feel of the outdoors into Thursday will seem like the weather jumped forward in time by a full month, it will jump back by about a month for the weekend, with temperatures more on par for the middle of September.

Widespread highs in the 70s are in store with some northern tier and mountain areas to max out in the upper 60s. Some locations will even reach the low 80s as the pattern continues next week.

"The upcoming pattern, beginning on Friday, will lead to day after day of sunshine with a steady day-to-day warmup in temperatures that is likely to last into at least early next week," Dombek said.

Conditions this weekend will be delightful by October standards for attending ballgames, going for an autumn walk, playing a round of golf, or just enjoying some time outdoors.

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The generally enjoyable weather will come at a cost. October has gotten off to an incredibly dry start, and in some cases, it has never been this dry so far into the month, Dombek said.

"It has been bone-dry in recent weeks in many parts of the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York City and Philadelphia," Dombek added, "And no significant rain is on the way anytime soon."

Prior to this year, Philadelphia's previous driest start in October was in 1940, when there was no measurable rain of 0.01 of an inch or greater through the 14th. Oct. 15, 1940, brought 0.33 of an inch to Philadelphia, snapping the streak. The dry streak continues this year and may last for many more days.

It's a similar story for New York City, with this year replacing the driest start on record for October. The prior dry start to the month was a tie with 1914 and 1974 through the 14th. Both years brought significant rain on the 15th. This year, the streak with no measurable rain may continue well into next week in New York's Central Park.

The dry ground will allow the mid- to late-October sun to focus its energy on heating the air, which may cause temperatures to surge during the afternoon hours in the region. For a few hours, it may feel quite warm in the sun.

"While dry conditions are not as much of a problem regarding agriculture this time of year, it could lead to an enhanced wildfire concern," Dombek cautioned.

The problem may be compounded where leaves have fallen, and care should be taken with outdoor power equipment, outdoor grills, with burning cigarettes, and if parking vehicles in non-paved or gravel locations. The hot exhaust from vehicles can easily ignite flattened cornstalks, leaves and tall grasses in makeshift parking areas.

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