Tropical Development Possible Across Western Caribbean & Lesser Antilles Regions

Long Range Weather Models Hint of Active End to Hurricane Season

10/15/24 3:56ppm ET

Caribbean SatellitePhoto byNWS

Good afternoon everyone. We continue to watch long range weather models in regards to the tropics due to stalled out moisture meandering around the western Caribbean; plus a tropical wave expected to cross the Atlantic and skirt just north of the Lesser Antilles.

In an article last week, we raised concerns about the tropical energy sticking around just south of Cuba and off of the Central American coast. The energy itself is coming to fruition, but deep-diving fronts in the Midwest reaching the Gulf of Mexico, could save the day and help keep everything to the south of us. We'll continue to watch it closely and see where it all goes.

Out in the Atlantic, our next wave actually has a better chance of development over the course of the next 7-10 days. However, we have a long way to go on this, and the timing of fronts make it suspect in terms of its ability to make it all the way to the East Coast.

With our fronts moving faster as we get deeper into fall, there is a good chance a sweeping front would kick any hypothetical system out to sea before it could reach areas such as Florida, North Carolina, or New York. We'll keep an eye on it all and update if anything changes.

National Weather Service - 7 Day Tropical Outlook