Why deportations are an ‘economic disaster’ and other immigration truths

There are likely more than 11 million immigrants living in the U.S. today without authorization. On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump has promised to enact "mass deportations" to remove unauthorized immigrants. Trump said he would use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which has not been used since internment camps during World War II.

The American Immigration Council, an advocacy group in favor of expanding immigration, estimates that a single mass deportation operation would cost at least $315 billion , a "highly conservative estimate." A longer-term operation would cost nearly $1 trillion over a decade.

"But actually, the direct costs of implementing the deportation aren't even the worst," said Zeke Hernandez, Wharton School professor and author of "The Truth About Immigration: Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers." "Think of it this way: All of a sudden, businesses have about 11 to 12 million fewer consumers. Is that what we want? Businesses have 11 to 12 million fewer workers to fill critical jobs in key areas; areas that are essential for our economy, like construction."

"It really would be an economic disaster," Hernandez said. "And not only do we have to speculate about that, we actually have many historical precedents where we have done exactly that."

The last official count of 11 million unauthorized immigrants in 2022 included 4 million Mexicans; roughly 4 million more from the Caribbean and Central and South America; 1.7 million from Asia; and 1.3 million from Europe, Canada, the Middle East, Africa and Oceania. The Census numbers have not been updated to reflect ongoing migration at the U.S.-Mexico border since 2022.

Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt says a majority of Americans "want mass deportations of illegal immigrants and trust President Trump most on this issue."

In a recent Gallup poll that has tracked Americans' immigration preferences since 1965, 55% of respondents said they preferred immigration levels be decreased, compared to 16% who said they should be increased and 25% who said they should stay the same. It's the highest amount of Americans reporting a desire to decrease immigration levels since the month following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Hernandez said the shifting attitude is understandable given the negative immigration rhetoric from politicians and the media.

"One of the big surprises of the last year or so is that both the Right and the Left have now taken a fairly aggressive message about the border and about how the influx of immigrants is really doing us damage," he told Straight Arrow News.

Hernandez cited Democratic mayors who used to be pro-immigration, now taking a stance on limiting immigration. Many of those mayors are facing budget constraints from an unexpected influx of migrants . While these arrivals cause short-term pain points, Hernandez argues that long-term economic benefits are around the corner.

"Immigrants contribute five big economic benefits to every country and community they arrive to," he said. "And those would be, one, investment, two, innovation, three, talent, four, consumption, and five, taxes. And those are the inputs to any prosperous economy."

That's not to say America's immigration system isn't in need of a major overhaul.

"It's not just that you have a few bad apples coming in, it's that our system for bringing in apples is completely screwed up," Hernandez said.

In an extended interview with SAN, Hernandez draws on 20 years of research to give fact-based explanations on the impacts of legal versus unauthorized immigration, skilled versus low-skilled migrants, immigration storylines of villain versus victim and why both are wrong, and the changes he would apply to the U.S. immigration system. You can watch the entire conversation in the video above.

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