Donald Trump (R) takes lead in PredictIt’s 2024 general presidential election market for first time since July

As of Oct. 15, 2024, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market showed former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.53 and Vice President Kamala Harris at $0.49. Trump has held the lead in this market since Oct. 11, 2024. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.

On May 10, 2024, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 to issue a rule proposal that would ban election betting markets. Previously, the commission announced it intended to rescind PredictIt’s no-action letter on August 4, 2022, with an effective date set for February 2023. On its website, PredictIt said that barring any changes in CFTC policy, it would halt trading on February 15, 2023. The CFTC reversed this decision in March 2023, allowing the platform to operate legally.