Scientists finally confirm that solar maximum is well underway — and the worst could still be to come
By Harry Baker,
14 hours ago
The explosive peak in the sun 's roughly 11-year cycle of activity — known as the solar maximum — is already well underway, scientists have announced. While many experts suspected that this was the case, the official confirmation comes as a big surprise given that researchers normally hold off on making such announcements until after this active phase starts winding down.
Representatives from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel (SCPP) made the announcement on Tuesday (Oct. 15). The groups confirmed that the solar maximum has already begun and suggested that it may have started as early as two years ago, long before initial solar cycle forecasts had predicted. The scientists also noted that solar activity will likely remain high for around another year.
"This announcement doesn't mean that this is the peak of solar activity we'll see this solar cycle," Elsayed Talaat , director of space weather operations at NOAA, said during the announcement. Solar activity could still increase in the coming months, bringing more vibrant aurora displays and potentially damaging solar storms to Earth, he added.
In December 2019, when the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) began, the SCPP predicted that solar maximum would likely start around 2025 and be relatively weak compared with past cycles, much like the previous maximum during Solar Cycle 24, which peaked between 2011 and 2014.
However, it soon became apparent that these initial predictions were inaccurate when signs of solar activity, such as sunspot numbers and the frequency of solar flares , began to sharply climb in late 2022 and early 2023.
Solar activity "has slightly exceeded expectations," Lisa Upton , co-chair of the SCPP, said during the most recent announcement. But the solar activity is not out of character for a typical solar maximum, she said.
However, 2024 has already demonstrated some potentially record-breaking levels of solar activity. For example, in August, the number of visible sunspots on the solar surface reached a 23-year high , including the highest daily count since 2001 .
The number of X-class solar flares — the most powerful explosions the sun can produce — has also exceeded any other year on modern record (since 1996), according to SpaceWeatherLive.com . The most powerful of these solar outbursts was an X9 magnitude blast on Oct. 3 , which was the most explosive flare since 2017.
Solar flares can launch clouds of plasma and radiation, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), at Earth. These can trigger geomagnetic storms, or disturbances in our planet's magnetic field, which can paint the skies with auroras.
Time will tell if solar activity will reach even greater levels in the coming year. But there is a chance that even more powerful solar storms, on par with the 1859 Carrington Event , could strike our planet, potentially impacting ground-based infrastructure, triggering widespread radio blackouts and causing satellites to tumble back to Earth.
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D.J. BEE
15m ago
never seen so many uneducated comments in one article before 🤦♂️
Richard
4h ago
Better increase taxes, and spend more on Climate Change!!!
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