The next four weeks will either make or break seasons for several high school football teams in the Sun Preps area.
One month from today, some teams will be completing final preparations for their first playoff game while others will be reminiscing on seasons cut short.
But which teams will still be practicing in mid November?
There’s a path to the postseason for every team in the Sun Preps area, though some are much more challenging than others.
To make the Florida High School Athletic Association playoffs, a team must either win its district or receive an at-large berth by finishing the season ranked as one of the top eight teams in its region.
The math can be hard to predict.
If a team outside of the top eight wins its district, it will steal an at-large berth and muddy the picture.
If a team currently ranked outside the top eight gets hot and wins out, it could bump teams out of the playoff race.
Keeping those anomalies in mind, here’s what each team in the Sun Preps region needs to do to make the postseason:
Playoff favorites
Venice (6-1)
Overall ranking: 7th in FL
Class ranking: 1st in 7A
Region ranking: 1st in Region 7A-2
It’s possible that Venice could lose out the rest of the way and still make the Region 7A-2 playoffs.
The Indians are the top team in their region, and would have to fall eight spots to miss out on the playoff picture.
Currently, the eighth-seeded team is Alonso, a 4-2 team with a strength of schedule nowhere close to that of Venice’s.
However, all of this regional ranking nonsense can be avoided rather easily. If Venice defeats Riverview and Sarasota — its two remaining district opponents — it will win its district and qualify for the playoffs with an automatic berth.
As far as regional seeding is concerned, this week’s game against Clearwater Central Catholic is monumental. If the Indians defeat the Marauders and win its two district games, it would retain its No. 1 seed in the region and host games throughout the regional playoffs.
Port Charlotte (4-2)
Overall ranking: 74th in FL
Class ranking: 11th in 4A
Region ranking: 3rd in 4A-Region 3
As it stands now, it would be easy to assume that Port Charlotte is a virtual lock to make it to the Region 4A-3 playoffs.
However, the path ahead is treacherous.
Port Charlotte could remove any reliance on regional rankings by winning its district, but that won’t be easy, with district games left against Dunbar (No. 43 in FL) and Naples (No. 46 in FL) — the two top-seeded teams in the region.
Winning the district would not only give the Pirates an automatic berth for the regional playoffs, but could also catapult them to the region’s No. 1 seed.
If the Pirates do not win their district, they would have to finish as a top-eight team in Region 4A-3. Since they are currently sitting as the No. 3 seed, that means they would have to fall six spots to not make it.
Currently, the No. 8 team in the region is Osceola — a 4-2 team with a low strength of schedule. The No. 9 team is South Fort Myers, a district opponent that Port Charlotte hammered, 56-3, earlier this season.
If the Pirates can win at least two of their remaining four games (Dunbar, Naples, Zephyrhills and Charlotte), there’s a good chance they will be playing past the regular season.
Of any Sun Preps team, the Pirates have the most to gain (or lose) over the season’s final stretch.
Charlotte (4-2)
Overall ranking: 107th in FL
Class ranking: 18th in 5A
Region ranking: 6th in Region 5A-3
The Tarpons made their path to a district championship almost impossible with a loss to Cape Coral, but that doesn’t mean they can’t make it to the regional playoffs.
If the season ended today, Charlotte would be a playoff team. However, that current playoff positioning is precarious.
Charlotte currently sits at No. 6 in its region and is just slightly ahead of No. 7 Pinellas Park (No. 112 in FL) and No. 8 Immokalee (No. 121 in FL) with some cushion ahead of the No. 9 team in the region, East Lee County (No. 159 in FL).
That means a strong finish is essential — especially if Charlotte wants to avoid facing a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the opening round of the playoffs.
Charlotte’s next two games — Mariner (2-4) and Ida Baker (0-6) — aren’t automatic wins, but are winnable.
Then, the most important games of the season against North Fort Myers (5-1) and Port Charlotte (4-2) await.
Winning those games — or at least one of them — would not only give Charlotte a strong chance to make the playoffs, but would also give it a much more manageable opening matchup.
Babcock (2-6)
Overall: 25th in FL (8-man football)
The Trailblazers will make the Sunshine State Athletic Conference playoffs no matter what happens, but they can improve their seeding before that arrives.
Babcock has one game remaining on Oct. 25 against Geneva Classical Academy (6-2), giving it a chance to finish its first-ever regular season with three wins.
So you’re saying there’s a chance
Lemon Bay (1-4)
Overall ranking: 347th in FL
Class ranking: 46th in 3A
Region ranking: 14th in Region 3A-4
Sitting at 14th of 16 teams in its region, Lemon Bay would have to jump ahead of six teams in its region to make the postseason if it doesn’t win the district.
The Mantas’ loss to Island Coast was devastating for its district hopes, but there is still an outside shot they could win the district.
Lemon Bay would have to win its remaining district games — against Estero and Cypress Lake — and have Cypress Lake defeat Island Coast to have a chance at winning the district via a rankings tiebreaker.
If that doesn’t happen, the Mantas would still need to win out.
Currently, the No. 8 seed in the region, Stranahan (No. 290 in FL), is within reach, but there’s no guarantee that a 3-0 finish would leapfrog Lemon Bay into playoff positioning.
DeSoto County (1-5)
Overall ranking: 452nd in FL
Class ranking: 63rd in 3A
Region ranking: 14th in Region 3A-3
DeSoto County is more than 100 overall spots behind the No. 8 seed in its region, Tampa Robinson (No. 340 in FL), which means its path to the playoffs will likely have to come via a district title.
That’s not out of the question, as the Bulldogs have yet to play a district game.
With only two other teams in its district, wins over Mulberry and Hardee would give DeSoto County the district championship.
That won’t be easy, especially considering that Mulberry (6-0, No. 100 in FL) is the No. 1 seed in the region, but the Bulldogs can’t be counted out.
Bowling
North Port (4-3)
Overall: 339th in FL (per MaxPreps)
The Bobcats are ineligible for the FHSAA playoffs because they have played an independent schedule this season.
However, a second straight winning season (and a second straight bowl game) isn’t off the table, and that’s something worth fighting for.
North Port would need to win at least two of its remaining three games — against Hardee, Mulberry and Lemon Bay — to avoid a losing season and reach the six-win threshold for a bowl game.
Though Mulberry will be a challenge, Hardee (2-4, No. 371 in FL) and Lemon Bay are teams that North Port will have a good chance to defeat.
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