Carville analyzes where the presidential race stands and Harris' path to victory

To discuss the presidential race and the Harris campaign’s strategies, Amna Nawaz spoke with longtime Democratic strategist James Carville. He served as a lead advisor on Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign and is the subject of a new documentary titled, “Carville: Winning is Everything, Stupid,” which chronicles his efforts to get President Biden to step down from the top of the ticket.

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Amna Nawaz: We’re now joined by longtime Democratic strategist James Carville.

He served as a lead adviser on Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign, and he’s the subject of a new documentary called “Carville: Winning Is Everything, Stupid,” which chronicles his efforts to get President Biden to step down from the top of the Democratic ticket.

James Carville, welcome back to the “News Hour.”

James Carville, Democratic Strategist: Well, thank you. Always a privilege to be on the show. I’m big fan, been a fan of it for a long time.

Amna Nawaz: Thank you, sir.

Well, let me just start by getting your take on the state of the race. There’s a new NPR analysis out today, in the seven battleground states, that it looks now like Mr. Trump has his first lead in the polling average in those specific battleground states since Harris moved to the top of the ticket. It’s a microscopic lead, less than half-a-percentage point, but I just wonder what you make of that.

James Carville: You know, everybody says this, but it’s actually true. In every election but one in this century, both candidates have gone about thinking they have a chance to win the election, 2008 being the only kind of exception to that.

And there’s just kind of — the polling is tight. But what generally happens is, the election breaks one way or another toward the end. And so we will — but we will wait and see. I have no prediction or anything like that. I’m just trying to work as hard as I can.

But it’s — everything indicates that there’s tight polling everywhere.

Amna Nawaz: Well, with 20 days left, what do you think it would take to break one way or the next? There’s no sort of big events left on the calendar, right?

James Carville: Well, I think that — I mean, to be honest, I think that vice president, the campaign is getting sharper. It’s getting more visible.

And, frankly, he’s getting, if anything, less attached to reality, even for him, than I have seen before. I mean, some of the stuff that he’s out there saying is really wild. And then you had that weird rally, 39-minute, I don’t know what you call it, but there’s some — I think he’s suffering from what I call my mamentia (ph), madness and dementia at the same time.

There’s considerable evidence that he’s in pretty severe state of deterioration right now, and we will just have to keep monitoring it. But — and I think she’s doing a little better. I really do.

Amna Nawaz: I want to ask you about one piece of advice you offered specifically to the Harris campaign in an op-ed last month.

You wrote this: “To be the certified fresh candidate, Ms. Harris must clearly and decisively break from Mr. Biden on a set of policy priorities she believes would define her presidency.”

In your view, has she done that enough?

James Carville: Well, she has an 81-page economic plan that she’s looking forward. I — like many other people, she was asked a question in a town hall. She pointed to all the plan and the things that she’s going to do.

The truth of the matter is, because President Biden has been a somewhat different president than President Obama was, who’s been a somewhat different president than President Clinton was. But she has her own ideas. They are articulated in a plan. And she — I think she could talk about that more and more. I do, absolutely.

Amna Nawaz: And she’s adopted a somewhat unconventional media strategy, which you just sort of referenced there too. She’s been going on podcasts like “Call Her Daddy” to directly reach millions of women, on FOX to directly speak to Republicans.

James Carville: Right.

Amna Nawaz: There’s reports she could go on Joe Rogan’s show now. She’s done Howard Stern.

Are these sort of high-risk, potentially high-reward scenarios for her?

James Carville: Well, you know, she — I’m not worried about her anymore. She’s gotten a lot better. She’s performed at the convention. She’s performed during the debate. She’s been on any number of different media platforms, and she’s performed well.

I think what they’re trying to do is get her in front of as many people as they possibly can. And the strategy that they decided, obviously, we’re going to do a lot of interviews. And that’s fine.

And I have seen a lot more visibility from her than I’d seen between the debate and this past weekend. So I’m very encouraged that she’s out. She’s doing a lot of different kind of forums that talk to different kinds of people. And I think that’s a good idea. And she’s doing it quite well, frankly.

Amna Nawaz: James, as you have seen, the gender gap in this race is one of the defining features of this campaign cycle. You have got Harris with a 14-point lead among women, Trump with a 16-point lead among men.

And we have seen that Harris’ support with young men in particular has been sliding. What’s your view on that? Why do you think so many men have trouble supporting her?

James Carville: Well, let’s just back up a second. What she’s really doing well is with white college-educated men.

I think that’s a key demographic for her. It is true that she’s not doing quite as well with young nonwhite males as we did in 2020. But she’s doing better in other male demographics. And I think she’s going to have to improve on that, absolutely.

I have been very outspoken about the Democrats. Males are 48 percent of this electorate. We have to take it seriously. And I think we can do a little bit better. But there’s no doubt that we’re not hitting the numbers we need to among males.

Amna Nawaz: James, I just want to ask you about the money in all of this too, because the latest FEC filing show the Democrats have a huge fund-raising advantage, especially over the last three months, over the Republicans and former President Trump.

So in these last 20 days, what kind of a difference can that money make and where should it go?

James Carville: Well, first of all, if it didn’t make any difference, everybody’s trying to raise as much as they can. So somebody thinks it matters.

But if you look beyond the money, you look at volunteers. I mean, they’re flooded with volunteers. Trump does — has no ground game. So we have never known what it means to have a robust GOTV effort, a robust voter contact effort. And every place I have talked to Democrats is really, really putting this together.

And he’s not putting anything together. I think he’s trying to outsource some of it. But we do have a fund-raising advantage. We have an enthusiasm advantage. We have a volunteer advantage. I think we have a visibility advantage.

And you just got to keep pressing your advantages as you get close and close to the election date. And, hopefully, these tied — I tell people the polling is 48-48. That’s just the way it is. And, hopefully, as we get close to the election, it’ll break her away. That’s the hope. I think it can happen.

Amna Nawaz: It’s always great to speak with you. Always great to hear your insights and your thoughts.

That is longtime Democratic strategist James Carville joining us tonight.

James, thank you.

James Carville: Thank you very much. You bet.