Ohio State set to face off against dangerous conference winner in latest CFP projections

Even after a painful 32-31 loss at Oregon last week, the Ohio State Buckeyes are projected to be a force in the College Football Playoff. Our latest CFP projections have moved the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten champion spot, but the Buckeyes can benefit from the extended format that sees 12 teams competing.

In this week's latest update, Ohio State would play in the First Four Matchups against Big 12 Champion, Iowa State.

Ohio State College Football Playoff Projections

Related: 12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions for Week 8 comes down to a third matchup between rivals

Our data-driven model has the Buckeyes finishing in the top at-large spot, ranking fifth. Oregon would win the Big Ten in this scenario, leaving the Buckeyes to play in the first round. Iowa State, projected to go 11-2, would be a feisty foe.

AtoZ Sports College Football Managing Editor Travis May had this to say about the matchup:

"Ohio State destroys Iowa State by at least three possessions as the talent gap is clearly evident on every snap."

Ohio State may have just lost to Oregon, but many power rating model builds would still have them as a favorite against the Ducks on a neutral field. There's still a path for them to climb back to, not only the the Big Ten Championship, but perhaps the first overall seed. However, with a loss on their record, the path is just more difficult from a probability standpoint. Regardless, as a five seed they would demolish Iowa State or any team that came out of the Big 12 or Group of 5 Conference.

Read the rest of May's analysis for more in-depth goodness on this matchup, but I agree with his take. While Iowa State has a potent passing game with quarterback Rocco Becht and receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, I don't think the passing defense that Ohio State displayed at Oregon was predictive of what we'd see in future matchups.

If anything, the near-500 yards allowed performance was a worst-case scenario for the Buckeyes. Their best cornerback played like a walk-on, and the pass rush was non-existent. While I've been critical of Ryan Day and his defenses in big games, that was more of a worst-case for Ohio State and best-case for Oregon.

Related: Mistakes throughout Ohio State's loss to Oregon are defining Ryan Day's tenure with Buckeyes

If Ohio State wins, it will play Boise State and the winner of Texas vs. Alabama. This would be quite a favorable bracket for the Buckeyes, even if losing to Oregon was difficult.

For now, we'll see how the Buckeyes recover against Nebraska and Penn State after the bye week.