What's next for Israel and Hamas after Sinwar's killing? Experts weigh in

Hamas military leader and Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar has been killed by Israeli troops. For two perspectives on what lies ahead, Amna Nawaz spoke with retired Israeli major general Yaacov Ayish and Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute.

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Amna Nawaz: For perspective on the killing of Hamas’ leader and what lies ahead, we get two perspectives.

Retired Major General Yaacov Ayish retired in 2016 after a 36-year career in the Israel Defense Forces. He’s now at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, a nonprofit that advocates for closer U.S.-Israeli relations. And Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, which advocates for closer relations between the U.S. and countries in the Persian Gulf.

Gentlemen, welcome to you both.

Hussein, I will begin with you.

Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute: Yes.

Amna Nawaz: And just start with the reaction to Yahya Sinwar’s death among Palestinians. How is that news resonating on the ground? And does this mean the end of Hamas?

Hussein Ibish: It certainly doesn’t mean the end of Hamas. It doesn’t even mean the end of the insurrection that has been taking place in Gaza since the end of the Rafah campaign, which is, I believe, the war that Hamas actually wanted to fight.

Palestinians are having a mixed reaction here. There’s a lot of anger against Israel. I think there’s a lot of sympathy for Hamas in the West Bank, where people are more removed from the consequences of the October 7 blowback and Israel’s savage war of vengeance in Gaza, which has taken at least 42,000, probably Many, Many more lives and displaced virtually everyone in Gaza, produced endemic hunger and all kinds of suffering.

In Gaza, interestingly, there’s a significant group of people who appear to be delighted with his passing, because they blame him rightly for having volunteered the entire population for martyrdom.

Amna Nawaz: General Ayish, let me bring you in here, because we heard earlier, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Sinwar’s death is the beginning of the end, but he also said that Israel will not stop this war in Gaza. What’s your reaction to that? Should he take this moment to end military operations there?

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.), Israeli Defense Forces: I think we should look at the broad picture.

The strategic goal of Israel after the attack that have happened by Hamas in October 7 was very simple, to bring back the hostages and to restore security to allow the residents of the south back to their villages. And in order to do that, one of the major important terms was to eliminate the threat of Hamas.

And, for that, you have to eliminate the 24 battalions of Hamas. For that, you have to eliminate Hamas infrastructure. For that, you have to eliminate Hamas military leadership. We have no interest in Gaza otherwise whatsoever.

Amna Nawaz: Hussein, let me ask you about Hamas moving forward from here.

Hussein Ibish: Yes.

Amna Nawaz: What does Sinwar’s death mean? Who steps up for him? Could it be a more moderate voice?

Hussein Ibish: Possible.

Amna Nawaz: And, also, does this change Iran’s support?

Hussein Ibish: No, I don’t think it’ll do anything to Iran’s relationship with Hamas, which is a marriage of convenience. Hamas doesn’t fit well in the Iranian alliance.

Now, as for who’s next, there is a slight chance that the hotel guys, as he used to call the former political leaders in — mainly in Qatar and Turkey, could try to get control back. But it’s more likely that leadership will fall to either an armed person in Gaza or perhaps even a diverse set of armed leaders.

The insurgency that’s developed after the Rafah campaign was basically completed and the formal organized battalions of Hamas were crushed doesn’t require extensive comMand-and-control. It doesn’t require a single charismatic leader.

Amna Nawaz: General Ayish, what about the hostages you mentioned as one of the main goals of this war, right? Previously, they were supposed to be brought home as the result of some kind of cease-fire negotiations, never materialized to get that across the finish line.

How do you see the hostages coming home at this point?

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.): Well, we can look at the last 12 months. With the Sinwar as a leader, definitely, he was a tough negotiator, and we couldn’t really succeed to bring back the hostages unless it was a rescue operation, as we have seen every now and then.

But, basically, 101 hostages are still at the other side. And for that, the Israeli prime minister came out today after Sinwar was eliminated calling to those who are holding the hostages there to send them back to Israel, and then they will be given free pass either outside of Gaza or elsewhere. So the option is there.

I’d like to go back for a second to the future leadership of Hamas. I think it’s a very important point. Definitely, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered in the last, I would say, two months a severe blow when it comes to leadership. Hamas have lost today, practically speaking, all of its leadership.

And now we are seeing how whatever the Iranians were preparing to surprise Israel, to attack Israel, that ring of fire that will surround Israel, how suddenly it cracks. So I think the future leader of Hamas is a very important element here. At least the voices that I hear is that Hamas already decided that Khaled Mashal, who have more, I would say, orientation towards Qatar, he’s going to be the temporary leader.

And I’m not sure that the Iranians are going to enjoy that.

Amna Nawaz: Go ahead.

Hussein Ibish: Yes, no, no, I think that’s right.

The only question is, if Mashal is the obvious person to take over as the titular leader now, I’m just doubtful that people on the ground are going to be listening to him. If he says release hostages in a deal, they might.

But if he tries to get them to give up on the insurgency that’s taking place, I think that’s a bigger ask. The gunmen on the ground control Hamas. And I’m not sure power, real power on the ground goes back to what Sinwar called the hotel guys in Qatar, even if they become again the titular leaders.

Amna Nawaz: I’d love to get both of your takes on this bigger picture issue, if we pull back just a bit, because there’s also been the point that’s come up that some have said this is the moment for the U.S. to lean in, for the U.S. to apply pressure on the Netanyahu government to try to get back to some kind of talks, which everyone agrees is the only chance for long-term peace in the region.

Hussein, what’s your take on that?

Hussein Ibish: Oh, I think it’s absolutely essential for the United States to put heavy pressure on Israel, as well as keep up pressure on Hamas and its supporters outside, including Iran and others, to kind of put the case that they’re all harming themselves.

So when you fight counterinsurgencies, the difficulty of ending them is very great. And I think the Israelis are sort of stuck. Hamas, too, has brought terrible damage not just to the people of Gaza and Gaza, but to their own political standing. People are — especially in Gaza, they’re angry with Hamas, and for good reason.

Amna Nawaz: General Ayish, I will give you the final word here.

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.): I must admit that I’m surprised here.

Israel was attacked by Hamas in October 7, and I won’t describe all the atrocities that they have done. Hamas was joined by Hezbollah a day after, with no reason. And then the Iranians decided to join to that attack together with the Shia militia from Iraq and the Houthis from Yemen.

And Israel should now show restraint? This is ridiculous. This is unbelievable.

(Crosstalk)

Hussein Ibish: You haven’t killed enough? Forty-two thousand dead Palestinians is not enough?

(Crosstalk)

Hussein Ibish: It’s enough.

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.): Let me finish for a second.

Hussein Ibish: Go ahead.

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.): I think what is really important is not the number of Hamas terrorists that were killed. What really matter is to see the hostages back in Israel and the threat conducted by Hamas from Gaza and by Hezbollah at the north eliminated and the security restored.

Bear in mind that, until today, in the north and in the south, Israelis are not back to their villages. Why? Because of that threat. So, at the end of the day, I think we will have first and foremost to eliminate the threat, and then we will be able to discuss all the security arrangements that we will follow, that basically we have had them.

We had cease-fire with the Hamas and we had a cease-fire with Hezbollah. They decided to surprise us. They decided to attack us. They decided to conduct those atrocities.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz: General Ayish, if I may, if I may, to Hussein’s earlier point, this idea that Hamas will continue to fight whether they’re organized and supported or not, the question is, is this a missed opportunity for Netanyahu to begin to have some kind of long-term peace talks that haven’t happened before?

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.): The opportunity was given to Sinwar and his militants for that negotiation. And after 12 months, we have seen nothing from them.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz: With Sinwar dead, does that change Netanyahu’s calculation?

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.): I think the fact that Netanyahu came out today with a very clear offer to allow a free pass to those who are going to release the hostages is a very good start.

Now we have to wait and see who is the leader, if he is effective, because, at the same time that we are talking about leadership, certain gangs are holding hostages inside the Gaza. It’s a decentralized system today. It’s not the system that we have seen in the past. So it’s really a challenge. We will have to wait and see to what effect this offer is influencing the situation on the ground.

Amna Nawaz: Gentlemen, we will have to leave it there.

Hussein Ibish: OK. Hamas would love to hear all of that, yes.

Amna Nawaz: I thank you both for joining in this conversation.

Retired Major General Yaacov Ayish and Hussein Ibish, thank you to you both.

Hussein Ibish: You’re welcome. Thank you.

Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish (Ret.): Thank you very much.