The race to win the Big 12 heats up on Friday night, as BYU hosts Oklahoma State in a crucial game in Week 8 of the 2024 college football season. The Cougars are off to a 6-0 start and squarely in the mix to win the Big 12 and compete for a spot in the CFB Playoff. The Cowboys were projected to be one of the Big 12's top teams this preseason, but coach Mike Gundy's program off to a disappointing 0-3 start in conference play.
If Oklahoma State is going to turn its season around, it has to start with a victory on Friday night. Gundy's squad started 3-0 but has dropped three matchups in a row, including games against conference frontrunners in Utah, Kansas State, and West Virginia.
After a 5-7 mark last season, BYU entered '24 with low expectations. But the Cougars have easily exceeded any preseason projection with a top-15 ranking and 6-0 mark so far. Coach Kalani Sitake's squad knocked off SMU, Kansas State, and Arizona in high-profile wins, with key matchups remaining against Utah, Kansas, and Arizona State after Friday night's battle with Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State holds a 3-0 series edge over BYU. The Cowboys won 40-34 over the Cougars in overtime last year.
Oklahoma State at BYU
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah
Kickoff: Friday, Oct. 18 at 10:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: BYU -9.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Announcers: Anish Shroff, Andre Ware, and Paul Carcaterra
Why Oklahoma State Will Win
The extra time to prepare for this game comes at a critical time after Oklahoma State lost its last three matchups. Can Gundy and his staff make necessary tweaks to get both sides of the ball back on track?
After scoring 39 or more points in each of the team's first three games, the Cowboys have failed to eclipse 21 points in matchups against Utah, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Getting the offense back on track is priority No. 1, as this unit has slipped in per-play production (5.5 yards a snap in Big 12 play).
Running back Ollie Gordon II ran for 1,732 yards last year but only has 384 yards through six games. BYU has been stingy against the run (120.3 yards a game allowed), but the Cowboys have to find a way to get their best player more involved and capable of delivering better production to jumpstart the offense.
In addition to the struggles on the ground, quarterback Alan Bowman has been inconsistent (12 TDs to eight interceptions). Backup Garret Rangel (24 attempts) has received snaps in two out of the last three games and is expected to see extended time (and potentially start) on Friday night if the offense sputters.
Although this unit is struggling, the pieces could fall into place after the off week and Gundy's team could get the production back on track. If Gordon is able to get on track, and Bowman or Rangel are able to cut down on the mistakes, it's easy to see how Oklahoma State can test BYU's defense
In addition to the offensive struggles, Oklahoma State's defense is allowing 34 points a game in Big 12 play. Turning around things in a major way during the year will be tough with standout linebacker Nick Martin sidelined indefinitely due to injury. However, the off week should allow the Cowboys to at least patch some of the early defensive concerns and reset for a physical BYU offense on Friday night.
Related: College Football Predictions for Every Game in Week 8
Why BYU Will Win
BYU is clearly the better team right now. The Cougars are averaging 34.3 points a game (up from 23.1 last year), and the defense is limiting teams to only 4.4 yards a snap. With both sides of the ball playing at a high level against a struggling Oklahoma State team, Sitake's program has several advantages in Friday night's matchup.
Fueling the offensive improvement has been the steady play of quarterback Jake Retzalff (14 passing touchdowns), along with an improved ground attack and offensive line.
Helping Retzlaff's development this year is a steady group of receivers that includes Chase Roberts (26 catches) and Darius Lassiter (21). Whether it's through the air or on the ground, BYU has the pieces to consistently move the ball against a struggling Oklahoma State defense.
Although BYU's offense has made major strides since '23, the defense is arguably the biggest reason why Sitake's team should emerge with a victory against the Cowboys. This unit is holding teams to 16.3 points a game, ranks fifth in the Big 12 in rush defense, and has already matched last year's sack total (11) in six contests.
Linebacker Jack Kelly (three sacks) has been instrumental in giving the pass rush a spark this year, while the secondary ranks No. 13 nationally in pass defense success rate.
BYU also thrives at getting takeaways (14 so far in '24), giving the offense plenty of short fields and favorable scoring opportunities.
Related: Ranking All 134 College Football Teams for 2024
Final Analysis
With BYU's improvement on both sides of the ball from last season and a perfect 6-0 mark so far in '24, it's hard to pick against the Cougars in this spot. Oklahoma State just has too many questions on offense, and the defense has yet to show improvement after struggling last year. Expect BYU to move to 7-0 and a step closer to a trip to the Big 12 Championship.
Prediction: BYU 34, Oklahoma State 20
Related: College Football Picks: Expert Predictions for Every Game in Week 8
Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2024-25
Related: College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 7
Local News
Comments / 0