NOAA expects La Niña to develop; what that means for winter weather

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it is predicting La Niña conditions to develop this winter, which will play a major role in upcoming weather patterns.

In its seasonal forecast, NOAA says it thinks conditions will be warmer and drier than usual in the South, wetter in the North, and cooler than usual in the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

NOAA

NOAA

“This winter, an emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.

In the United States, a La Niña generally brings warm and dry winters for most of the south and east, while the northwestern U.S. normally has cooler and wetter winters.

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La Niñas also raises the risk of extreme drought in the southern U.S.

The forecast also suggests that the Southwest and parts of the Plains could see a worsening drought.

“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.

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The U.S. had its warmest winter on record in 2023-24. Eight states across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast each their warmest winters on record.

The average temperature for the Lower 48 was 37.6 degrees Fahrenheit, 5.4 degrees above average. Last winter was also among the wettest on record. The U.S. winter precipitation total was 7.71 inches, 0.92 inch above average, making it the third-wettest winter.