<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=2mIR21_0wCSNpWf00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=2mIR21_0wCSNpWf00" width="1210" height="806" ></figure>Washington’s loss to Iowa was pure agony. The offense played poorly. The defense played poorly. The special teams were a shambles. The game plans and substitution patterns looked hopeless. The poorly-timed penalties resurfaced. The Dawgs even made the sort of terrible turnovers that they had largely avoided to that point in the season. Everything that could go wrong for the Dawgs in Iowa City went wrong. It was the worst football game UW has played in years, at least since the Bob Gregory Apple Cup. At the top of the team’s org chart sits Jedd Fisch, who has to own this terrible result. The question is whether that terrible result has exposed a fundamental failing in Fisch’s coaching acumen. The Huskies sit at 4-3, 2-2 in their first taste of Big 10 play. Headed into the season, I thought the schedule looked like it had five games the Dawgs should win (Weber St, Eastern Michigan, Washington St, Northwestern, and Indiana), four games where UW would be a clear underdog (Michigan, USC, Penn St, and Oregon), and three games that could go either way (Rutgers, Iowa, UCLA). My thinking was that if the Dawgs went 5-4 in the clear favorite/underdog games, the final record could come down to how they did in the swing games, with the final record ranging from 5-7 to 8-4. So far, the Dawgs are 0-2 in those games, but UCLA looks much worse than I expected. The Dawgs also lost a likely win (Apple Cup) and won a likely loss (Michigan), which leaves them back at par for the overall record. The problem is that Indiana looks like they might have jumped two categories, from “likely win” to “likely loss.” Applying what we know now about Indiana to that preseason calculation, the expected record would shift to a range of 4-to-7 wins. With two losses in three toss-up games already in the books, the Huskies will have to pull off a win against a better rated team (USC, Penn St, Oregon, Indiana) and beat UCLA to reach bowl eligibility. Luckily, USC has probably played its way into toss-up territory, so six wins remains very possible. In examining why the record looks worse than we hoped, the Apple Cup loss looms large. Both that game and the loss to Rutgers saw Husky teams that dominated large chunks of the action, but failed to convert yards into points, made grievous special teams errors, and committed horribly timed penalties. Washington had a postgame win expectancy of 78% in the Apple Cup and 72% against Rutgers. After each game, any fan could see the blueprint for a more successful team- just carve away the dumb plays and the core of a very good team is already underneath it. The Iowa game was something different. The Dawgs were bludgeoned (4% postgame win expectancy). Even so, if the Dawgs were 6-1, or even 5-2, and coming off a bad loss to a physically dominant Iowa team, it would probably feel more like the years when Chris Petersen’s teams just didn’t match up well with Stanford than an existential problem. The comparison to Petersen can be instructive. I have heard fans say that the early Fisch era has reminded them of Steve Sarkisian’s tenure. Setting aside the Jimmy Lake Vortex, Sark’s early days were the last time UW had a fairly inexperienced head coach. Of course, Sark came to UW with no head coaching experience, but Fisch only had 16 career wins as a full-time head coach and only last year’s 10-3 season as a winner. Even so, in Petersen’s first year, the Huskies lost back-to-back games against Oregon and Arizona State in October to drop to 5-3. That team didn’t have a win as good as Fisch’s win over Michigan, but with 92 wins and two Fiesta Bowls on his resume, nobody wondered whether Petersen was cut out for this whole football coaching thing. The Huskies gave Petersen time to develop and build the roster, and by year three, the team was in the CFP. The roster development is another key factor for Fisch. As we all know, the Huskies returned almost no production from last year’s team. Coming into the year, Washington ranked 126th in returning production per Bill Connelly’s ratings, and second last among P4 teams. Among the other teams who ranked near the bottom, Michigan (130th) has been wildly disappointing. Mississippi St, Maryland, and North Carolina, all outside the top 100, have gone a combined 0-9 in conference play. Tennessee is the only P4 team ranked outside the top 100 to have much success, and their roster was buttressed by the 6th best transfer class by average rating. I think we all understood intellectually how difficult it would be to win with a brand-new roster that had never played together, but the emotional experience of watching that lack of cohesion is jarring nonetheless. Even with the personnel challenges, the output on the field has still had lots of good elements. Per College Football Insiders, the Huskies are 13th in the country in Net Expected Points Added. The offense and defense are both 17th best in the country, supported by very effective pass offense and pass defense. If you have read this far, I don’t have to tell you that the stats don’t tell the whole story. The Dawgs have struggled in the red zone, failing to finish these impressive drives with touchdowns. Penalties on both sides of the ball have turned wins into losses. The special teams play has been atrocious, from Grady Gross’ kicking yips to wobbly punts, to nearly non-existent kick coverage (if I’m going to call for any drastic changes, it would be to replace Jordan Paopao as ST Coordinator. He’s a great TE coach and recruiter, but he has to own these ST failures). These are areas where Fisch will have to improve, but the bones of a good offense and a good defense are already apparent, even with so much roster turnover. While Fisch will still have to refine his red zone play-calling and substitution patterns, closing the gap on the teams ahead of them will require the Huskies to bring in and develop top talent. Late in the summer, Dawg fans were buzzing about the great job Fisch and his staff were doing on the recruiting trail. The class remains #19 in the country and sixth in the Big 10. Perhaps doing so much good recruiting work early in the cycle has made the good vibes wear off, but the recruiting work the staff has done so far has exceeded my expectations. As Fisch has said, the current college football climate rewards schools and collectives that spend big on recruits and transfers. It remains to be seen if UW can keep up with the likes of Ohio State, Tennessee, and, yes, Oregon, in that arena. That has nothing to do with Fisch or his staff’s ability to recruit players and everything to do with donors’ willingness to treat Husky football as a vanity project. Many of you are probably familiar with Betteridge’s Law, which states that “any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered, ‘no.’” From my perspective, Betteridge’s Law applies here. Yes, there are clear areas for improvement for Jedd Fisch, from how he talks about his own mistakes to how he and his staff coach special teams. On the other hand, he has faced a monstrously difficult task and the results have been at least passable. Given positive indications on the recruiting trail and his own successes in the transfer portal on a limited timeline, I still see plenty of reasons for optimism as long as Fisch remains UW’s head coach. No, he has not done anything in his first few months to guarantee that he will become a great coach. There are plenty of speed bumps that could still get in his way. But neither do I see any reason to be more pessimistic than we were in January. </div></body>

Mountain View, CA

NewsBreak

Is it time to worry about Jedd Fisch?

Washington’s loss to Iowa was pure agony. The offense played poorly. The defense played poorly. The special teams were a shambles. The game plans and substitution patterns looked hopeless. The poorly-timed penalties resurfaced. The Dawgs even made the sort of terrible turnovers that they had largely avoided to that point in the season. Everything that could go wrong for the Dawgs in Iowa City went wrong. It was the worst football game UW has played in years, at least since the Bob Gregory Apple Cup. At the top of the team’s org chart sits Jedd Fisch, who has to own this terrible result. The question is whether that terrible result has exposed a fundamental failing in Fisch’s coaching acumen.