Tracking 2 Caribbean tropical rainstorms, possibly Nadine and Oscar

AccuWeather meteorologists are currently tracking two tropical rainstorms in the Caribbean and an area of interest just off the United States Atlantic coast for further organization and intensification.

While the clock is ticking on the strengthening window for both tropical rainstorms in the Caribbean, both will bring the risk of flooding downpours, and both have a chance of becoming depressions and named tropical storms into this weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists say. There is also a storm brewing near Bermuda.

One rainstorm has been tracking westward much of this week, just north of the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. The other has been hovering over the western part of the Caribbean Sea most of this week.

"Dry air and disruptive breezes (wind shear) held back the intensification process on both systems through Thursday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said, "However, wind shear is dropping off for both, so there is a window where either or both systems can ramp up into Saturday."

Nadine and Oscar are the next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tracking the tropical rainstorm in the western Caribbean

The tropical rainstorm in the western Caribbean has the largest zone of showers and thunderstorms and will track westward into Belize on Saturday. Prior to making landfall in Belize, a quick strengthening process over the warm waters can allow a tropical depression or tropical storm to form.

Beach, fishing, small craft and cruise interests should be prepared for rapidly building surf and deteriorating weather conditions into Saturday over the northwestern Caribbean.

The western Caribbean rainstorm will deliver torrential downpours and gusty winds to Belize, southeastern Mexico, northern Honduras and northern Guatemala through much of this weekend. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 1.

A general 1-4 inches of rain will fall with pockets of 4-8 inches, mainly in southern Mexico, where there is an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 25 inches. Where more than a few inches of rain pours down, there is the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in hilly terrain.

Wind gusts can become strong enough to trigger sporadic power outages in clusters of heavy thunderstorms. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for the Central America tropical rainstorm is 80 mph.

While mountainous terrain in southern Mexico and Central America is likely to lead to the total demise of the rainstorm, there is a chance the circulation survives and reaches the eastern Pacific, where regeneration or a new storm could evolve next week.

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Tracking the northern Caribbean tropical rainstorm

The second Caribbean tropical rainstorm also has the potential to become a tropical depression or storm.

The period of strengthening will likely end as it encounters increasing wind shear, which will help to turn it southwestward with close encounters to the large and mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba later this weekend. Once it passes through these islands, it may dissipate or continue on as a poorly organized tropical rainstorm in the western Caribbean.

The rainstorm will still bring building seas, dangerous surf and increasing downpours for a time from Puerto Rico, westward to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Some gusty winds and heavy rain will also push into the Turks and Caicos.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for the northern Islands of the Caribbean is less than 1.

Enough rain can be squeezed out on the mountainous terrain and the steep slopes to trigger dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. While the islands have encountered much worse over the years in terms of wind, there can still be sporadic power outages due to locally strong gusts in clusters of thunderstorms.

Watch out, Bermuda, for a storm in transition

There is one other area worth watching in the Atlantic basin, and it is not in the Caribbean nor the Gulf of Mexico but rather in waters off the eastern coast of the United States.

This already-established storm began just off the Carolina coast earlier this week and has since strengthened significantly. Warm waters beneath this non-tropical storm may allow it to take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics and potentially evolve into a depression or named storm.

Steering breezes will guide it near Bermuda this weekend, which will experience rough seas and periodic squalls that can bring gusty winds and downpours to the islands.

There is a low chance of it evolving into a full-blown tropical storm or hurricane while tracking near the islands with plenty of warm water and low wind shear.

Quick summary of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season so far

The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30. Thus far, there have been 13 tropical depressions and tropical storms with nine hurricanes, including four major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

Category 5 Hurricane Beryl set early-season intensity and formation records with maximum sustained winds reaching 165 mph on July 2 over the eastern Caribbean.

Damage and fatalities from late-September Cagetory 4 Hurricane Helene (140-mph maximum sustained winds) continue to be assessed. Still, the Gulf of Mexico hurricane is already one of the deadliest and most destructive in U.S. history.

At one point on Oct. 6, there were three simultaneous hurricanes: Kirk, Leslie and Milton.

Milton, in the Gulf of Mexico, was not only the strongest hurricane of the 2024 season so far but one of the strongest ever in the Atlantic basin, with maximum sustained winds reaching 180 mph on Oct 7.

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