Analysis: Sinwar’s killing a chance to end wars in Gaza, Lebanon -- with U.S. pressure

BEIRUT, Lebanon , Oct. 18 (UPI) -- The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, architect of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that unleashed an Israeli brutal and destructive war against Gaza , could present an opportunity to stop the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

That is, if the United States can impose enough pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , analysts and military experts said.

The alternative -- in case a "thrilled Netayahu" pursues his dream of imposing a new Middle East -- is the continuation of the combat on both fronts, as well as more death and destruction -- an unknown fate for the Gaza-held Israeli soldiers and an expansion of the war in the region, the experts said.

The 62-year-old Sinwar was killed Wednesday during an Israeli ground operation in the Tal El-Sultan area in southern Gaza. Footage released Thursday to confirm his death showed him wearing military fatigues, with open wounds in the head, leg and arm, in a damaged apartment. He was fighting and not hiding.

Taking out Sinwar, who masterminded and carried out the Oct. 7 " Al Aqsa Flood Operation" that resulted in the killing of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 250, was "an achievement" for the Israeli Army and Netanyahu, retired Lebanese Brigadier-General Hassan Jouni said.

"It means that they have eliminated the principal danger that was 'hurting' Israel and punished the first person responsible for the Oct. 7 attack, leading to euphoria inside Israel," Jouni told UPI.

Long struggle

However, he noted that Hamas' "spectacular" cross-border attack last year, which he said "violated international law," was the result of "a long struggle caused by the [Israeli] violation of [Palestinian] land, the siege on Gaza and all the resulting suffering."

Sinwar's killing, though, possibly would have limited impact on the morale of the remaining Hamas armed forces, who were weakened by Israel's year-old relentless and destructive hits on Gaza.

"They are no longer able to fire missiles to the heart of Israel, but are still fighting inside the enclave, and that will continue," Jouni said.

Attention now is focused on whether Sinwar's killing would pave the way for a much-needed cease-fire in Gaza, where an estimated42,438 people have been killed and 99,246 wounded, mostly women and children.

U.S. President Joe Biden described the killing of the Hamas leader as "a good day for the world," and made it clear that it is the time to end the war in Gaza and bring the Israeli hostages home.

That would depend largely on Netanyahu and on who will replace Sinwar as head of Hamas.

Israel and Hamas have been engaged for long months in indirect cease-fire talks, led by Qatar and Egypt.

Secure hostage release

The goal is to achieve an agreement that would secure the release of all remaining Israeli detainees held in Gaza, in exchange for the freeing of agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, a permanent cease-fire to end the war, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip and its reconstruction.

Sinwar's killing by itself will not lead to a cease-fire while Netanyahu is continuing with the Gaza operation or free Israeli hostages still held by Hamas separate cells, according to Mohanad Hage Ali, the director of communications and a fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center.

"The most likely thing to happen is that the intensity of the battles could ease, with significant decline in Hamas morale," Hage Ali told UPI.

Khalil al-Hayeh, the most prominent Hamas figure outside Gaza, who confirmed Friday the killing of Sinwar, maintained his group's conditions to end the war are no surrender, no hostage release before Israel stops its aggression and withdraws completely from the enclave, and release of the Palestinian prisoners.

"The conditions are the same, they are still holding on," Hage Ali said. "Would there be any change? This is not clear now."

Several possible replacements

To replace Sinwar, several names have been circulating, including his younger brother, Mohammed, who, according to The Jerusalem Post, was the target of many killing attempts -- more than any other senior Hamas figure -- before the war.

With most of Hamas leaders now based outside Gaza, Hage Ali said that Mohamad Sinwar, who is in the enclave, "could be killed later while Hamas remaining small cells will become weaker in their tunnels .... Israel is receiving information about these tunnels in an increasing way."

Jouni, however, refers to a possible change in Hamas' position, depending on who will become the new leader and who will influence such a succession -- Iran or other Arab parties.

"Would the new leader continue the path of Sinwar? Would he adopt a new path?" Jouni asked rhetorically, noting that despite the official statements, "Iran's influence on Hamas has decreased due to certain developments in the battlefield, and there is lots of talk about confidence between the two sides."

Most pressing issue

The Israeli hostages will be the most pressing issue to face Netanyahu after the killing of Sinwar, with mounting fears for their safety by their families.

"Will Netanyahu be able to continue freezing the hostage talks and proceed with his plans in the region?" Jouni asked. "What about the U.S.?

"If things are left for Netanyahu to decide, he will surely take us to a big war in the region, especially because he is under the illusion that he scored big achievements and will be able to completely smash the [Hamas and Hezbollah ] resistance."

Hamas still has some 10,000 to 15,000 fighters, while last month's assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah "does not mean the killing of Hezbollah's 100,000 fighters who will never surrender," Jouni noted.

He argued that any settlement in Gaza or Lebanon would be determined by the ground battles on both fronts. Israeli forces have been unable to control Gaza so far, clashing repeatedly with the Hamas fighters, while they are incapable of advancing into southern Lebanon because of fierce resistance by Hezbollah fighters.

According to Hage Ali, it is hard to imagine Hamas total control of Gaza after the killing of its top leaders and commanders.

Initially, there should be a solution related to the management of the strip after the war and its reconstruction with new political conditions, he said.

"It needs a greater regional influence, and Sinwar's killing somehow helps in having a larger regional influence at a later phase," he said, referring to "the ability especially of Egypt to put pressure to find an acceptable solution to all parties."