<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=3rxtvM_0wClWJq100" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3rxtvM_0wClWJq100" width="1200" height="827" ><figcaption>Lack of rainfall and windy weather have intensified drought conditions through the Great Plains. This map shows many areas with less than 2% soil moisture.&nbsp; Submitted image from Nebraska Extension</figcaption></figure>After a couple of weeks of warm and dry conditions this fall, there is a chance for some precipitation in the second half of October. The longer-range winter forecast, however, could bring more warm and dry weather.The latest winter weather forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center Thursday, Oct. 17 highlights La Niña developing by the end of this year, that event is expected to be weak and fairly short. That means below-average precipitation and above-normal temperatures for the central Plains this winter.“The dryness has sped crop drying in the fields, making harvest move ahead with crops drying very quickly. But the soils are becoming dry enough that people are limiting some planting of winter wheat until we see some rains coming,” said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa.Those rains could come the week of Oct. 21, he said, which would help winter wheat started. In some places, thought, farmers have abandoned the idea of planting winter wheat, Todey said.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1KiSKC_0wClWJq100" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1KiSKC_0wClWJq100" width="864" height="1080" ><figcaption>Dry conditions have prompted fire safety warnings as farmers harvest fall crops.&nbsp; Submitted image from Nebraska Extension</figcaption></figure>As of mid-October, fire issues have not been huge in the Central Plains, but North Dakota has burned over 100,000 acres, leading to two deaths and some structural losses.Farmers are being cautioned to avoid fires in Nebraska as drought rapidly intensifies. Dry, dormant vegetation, low relative humidity and gusty winds make conditions ripe for wildfire. University of Nebraska-Lincoln experts point out that soil moisture is below the fifth percentile statewide and across much of the central U.S. They recommend producers contact your local fertilizer dealers since some are able to loan water-filled “nurse” tanks to help producers with fire suppression.While wheat has been dusted in across much of Kansas, a lack of surface moisture means emergence will likely remain a struggle into the winter. Blowing dust and erosion are big concerns, though heavy pest issues on young wheat will be reduced, due to a widespread freeze.“The freeze brought an end to volunteer wheat and finished off soybean and sorghum that was struggling to dry out,” said Chip Redmond, assistant meteorologist with Kansas State University’s Weather Data Library and Mesonet.“Agricultural concerns become more limited in the winter, but water supplies will be a concern,” he said.<h2>People are also reading…</h2>Producers will very likely need to hauling water for cattle.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1qmnn1_0wClWJq100" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1qmnn1_0wClWJq100" width="1650" height="1275" ><figcaption>The winter temperature outlook says Nebraska and Kansas could see warmer-than-average temperatures to start off this winter.&nbsp; Submitted image from NOAA</figcaption></figure>La Niña is considered to be the major player influencing weather into this winter. Conditions in the Pacific are neutral but getting closer to official La Niña conditions.Nebraska winters with La Niña tend to have more swings in temperature but can be cold for stretches.“We also historically have had more regular, lighter snowfall events. We don’t tend to be that wet during La Niña (or during late fall and winter in general), and given the deficits we are accumulating, it is improbable that we’ll see significant drought improvement over the next several months,” said Dr. Eric Hunt, assistant extension educator of agricultural meteorology and climate resilience at the University of Nebraska-LincolnNebraska could potentially get enough snowfall this winter to act as a Band-Aid and bring a bit of improvement to drought conditions, Hunt said.Winter temperatures in the Climate Prediction Center outlook range from warmer than average in the southern Plains and a slightly better chance of colder than average to the north. Precipitation is somewhat the same way. Forecasts for winter precipitation lean toward the dry side in several of the outlooks through the winter into early spring, Todey said. Continuation of drought into the winter is quite possible.“I would expect ongoing forage issues as well,” he said.All of Iowa has equal chances of having either normal winter precipitation or above or below normal – in other words, an average winter.Regarding winter temperatures, the extreme northern tier of Iowa is expecting average winter temperatures. The rest of Iowa is expecting slightly higher than normal temperatures, according to the latest forecast.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=2ZpqJU_0wClWJq100" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=2ZpqJU_0wClWJq100" width="1650" height="1275" ><figcaption>The forecast in the Great Plains calls for equal chances of above-normal, normal or below-normal precipitation in November, December and January.&nbsp; Submitted image from NOAA</figcaption></figure>Freelance writer Amy Hadachek is a two-time Emmy Award winning meteorologist and a storm chaser who earned her NWA and AMS Broadcast Meteorology Seals of Approval. She and her husband live on a diversified farm in Kansas. Reach her at editorial@midwestmessenger.com.</div></body>

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Dry weather to continue this winter

After a couple of weeks of warm and dry conditions this fall, there is a chance for some precipitation in the second half of October. The longer-range winter forecast, however, could bring more warm and dry weather. The latest winter weather forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center Thursday, Oct....

Dry weather to continue this winter

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