The No. 23 SMU Mustangs (5-1, 2-0 ACC) and the Stanford Cardinal (2-4, 1-2) meet Saturday at Stanford Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the SMU vs. Stanford odds , and make our expert college football picks and predictions .
SMU pulled off a big road win against Louisville, 34-27, overcoming a 6.5-point underdog status and hitting the over on the 55-point total. Despite blowing a double-digit lead, the Mustangs held on thanks to QB
Kevin Jennings , who posted career highs with 281 passing yards, 113 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. Safety
Isaiah Nwokobia sealed the victory with a clutch end-zone interception in the final minutes.
Stanford endured its 3rd consecutive loss, falling 49-7 to No. 11 Notre Dame. Two of these defeats have come against ranked teams, underscoring the challenge of their recent schedule. The Cardinal’s offense struggled again, producing only 137 total yards and just 28 points over their last 3 games combined. Notre Dame's defense stifled Stanford, racking up 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and a fumble recovery, effectively shutting down any chance for a Cardinal comeback.
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SMU vs. Stanford odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds . Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML) : SMU -750 (bet $750 to win $100) | Stanford +525 (bet $100 to win $525)
- Against the spread (ATS) : SMU -16.5 (-115) | Stanford +16.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 53.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
SMU vs. Stanford picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 37, Stanford 13
PASS .
Hard not to love SMU (-750) in this matchup but not at those odds. I'll take my bet to the spread.
BET SMU -16.5 ( -115 ).
The Mustangs have proven they can handle business on the road, with 7 straight away wins, and their offense is finding its rhythm, covering the spread in their last 3 games. Stanford, on the other hand, has struggled mightily. They’re 4-9 ATS as a double-digit underdog in their last 13 games, losing the 2 games this season in that role by an average of 34 points. Against AP-ranked teams, the Cardinal have dropped 15 straight games as underdogs, failing to cover in 14 of those. Meanwhile, SMU has been dominant within the conference, winning 15 of their last 16 such games and covering in each of their last 4 October matchups against non-AP-ranked teams. Stanford has also lost the first half in 7 of their last 8 home games against conference opponents.
Given SMU's form and Stanford's struggles, laying the points with the Mustangs seems the right call.
BET UNDER 53.5 ( -110 ).
SMU's offense is on a roll, with Jennings leading a balanced attack, boasting 1,014 passing yards, 6 touchdowns and just 1 interception. RB Brashard Smith adds another dimension with 561 rushing yards and 7 scores, while WR RJ Maryland has been a reliable target with 304 yards and 3 touchdowns. This potent offense has helped SMU go over the total in 4 of their last 5 games, averaging over 40 points per game in their last three outings.
Stanford's defense has struggled mightily, allowing an average of 34.7 points per game, including 49 points to Notre Dame last week. Their vulnerable secondary could face more trouble against a red-hot SMU passing game. While 5 of Stanford’s last 6 conference games have gone under, their defensive issues make them susceptible to a high-scoring affair here. Expect both teams to push the total over.
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