Sprint data unlocks clues to big US Grand Prix question: Can Ferrari win at COTA?

Max Verstappen took victory in the Sprint race at the US Grand Prix at COTA. The Dutch driver dominated from start to finish completely unchallenged. However, Ferrari was the big surprise of an exciting race. The Italian team could have threatened the Red Bull driver without the on-track fight between Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc.

Sainz started the Sprint race in P5, but managed to finish P2 after a mistake by Lando Norris at Turn 1 on the final lap. The Spaniard was the man of the race, fighting hand to hand with Leclerc for several laps and then chasing down the McLaren who was a significant margin ahead.

Ferrari race pace strength a sign of things to come at the US Grand Prix?

Ferrari ‘s pace was spectacular as the laps went by. Especially as the battle between teammates in the Scuderia got to the end after almost six laps of hard fighting. In these laps they lost valuable time to try to aspire to fight for the win and they also lost the opportunity of having fresher tyres to carry out this mission.

The data shows that, for all practical purposes, Sainz had a potentially better race pace than Max Verstappen. It’s worth noting, however, that Verstappen is likely to have managed tyres and pace at the front.

The Red Bull driver set the fastest lap of the Sprint on the final lap with a time of 1:37.463, making it clear that he had more pace in his pocket.

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Still, it’s clear that with a better qualifying and without a fight between teammates, Ferrari could have challenged Verstappen and this confirms that the Scuderia has the ability to fight with Red Bull on Sunday’s main race.

All drivers started on the medium tyre. Lando Norris and George Russell started on a 5-lap used compound, while both Ferrari and Max Verstappen started on a 3-lap used tyre.

Russell’s tyre performance said ‘goodbye’ right before reaching the halfway point of the race. The Mercedes driver confirmed on a radio message that his left front tyre was overheating and badly degraded – a situation that Lewis Hamilton also suffered in Sprint qualifying after pushing too hard in Sector 1.

Norris also suffered from degradation when he tried to make a change of pace to chase Verstappen. The McLaren driver managed to close the gap from two seconds to 1.3s to the Red Bull driver, but then Verstappen quickly reacted to avoid any threatening situation that could put into risk his 11th Sprint race win.

Norris’ change of pace lasted only three laps. From here on, around lap 10, the McLaren driver’s pace dropped with respect to Ferrari. Sainz overtook Russell totally defenceless with his tyres badly damaged and the hunt for P2 against Norris began.

The battle between the two Ferrari drivers, in terms of maximising results as a team, was largely unnecessary. The double podium was certainly possible for both Sainz and Leclerc, who also had a strong pace, albeit worse than that of the future Williams driver.

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