Charting Penn State’s Road to the Big Ten Title Game and the College Football Playoff

Even though the 2024 college football season is only half over — No. 3 Penn State is 6-0, with six games to play — the national focus is on which teams will make the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.

But, first, the Big Ten will hold its conference championship game, at 8 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 7, in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis — site of the Nittany Lions’ 38-31 title game win over Wisconsin in 2016, their only championship game appearance.

Because the Big Ten eliminated divisions with the addition of former Pac-12 teams Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC, the conference will determine its champion — and cash a high multi-million million rights check from CBS, which is broadcasting the game — by pitting the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the overall conference standings.

The most likely match-up in that game? Right now, Oregon and Penn State. According to my projections, PSU and No. 1 Oregon (7-0) will both finish the regular season with, at most, one conference loss — Penn State to Ohio State and Oregon to…Washington. Maybe.

Entering Saturday’s games, when Penn State plays at 7:30 p.m. EDT in Camp Randall in Madison, Wisc., six of the 18 Big Ten teams have zero conference losses (PSU, Oregon, surprising No. 13 Indiana) or only one loss (No. 4 Ohio State, No. 20 Illinois, Wisconsin). Penn State beat Illinois 21-7 in September.

After this Saturday, those six will drop by at least two, with the Nittany Lions at the Badgers and Oregon at Illinois.

Here’s how the rest of the Big Ten regular season plays out for the current top half-dozen (records are overall, Big Ten):

PENN STATE (6-0, 3-0) — Home: Ohio State, Washington, Maryland. Away: Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota. Prediction: 11-1, 8-1.

Oregon (7-0, 4-0) — Home: Illinois, Maryland, Wisconsin. Away: Michigan, Washington. Prediction: 11-1, 8-1.

Indiana (7-0, 4-0) — Home: Washington, Michigan, Purdue. Away: Michigan State, Ohio State. Prediction: 10-2, 7-2.

Ohio State (5-1, 2-1) — Home: Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan. Away: Penn State, Northwestern. Prediction: 10-2, 7-2

Illinois (6-1, 3-1) — Home: Minnesota, Michigan State. Away: Oregon, Rutgers, Northwestern. Prediction: 9-3, 6-3.

Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1) — Home: Penn State, Oregon, Minnesota. Away: Iowa, Nebraska. Prediction: 7-5, 5-4.

TOUGHEST FINISHING STRETCH

Here is who those six teams face the rest of the way. The “Toughest Schedule” metric is the combined records, winning percentage and overall national ranking based on the to-date 2024 success of their remaining opponents, according to official NCAA statistics.

Wisconsin has the third-toughest finishing stretch among all college football teams in 2024, which includes both Penn State and Oregon. Indiana’s remaining schedule ranks a fairly-easy No. 81 out of 133 major college football teams. (Current Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen was Indiana’s head coach, from 2017-23, with a record of 33-49.)

Wisconsin — 3rd, 26-8 (.765)
Oregon — 25th, 23-12 (.657)
Ohio State — 28th, 26-15 (.634)
Illinois — 29th, 22-13 (.629)
PENN STATE — 65th, 23-18 (.561)
Indiana — 81st, 18-16 (.529)

TITLE GAME TIE-BREAKERS

What happens if two teams are tied in the Big Ten standings (conference games only) at the end of the regular season? For example, if Penn State loses to Ohio State, which already lost 32-31 to Oregon, and both would then win out? Both would have one loss. Then, the Buckeyes would play in the Big Ten championship game, by virtue of their head-to-head win over Penn State.

The following steps will be taken until a determination is made (condensed version below with full version listed here ):

1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

If Penn State makes it to the Big Ten Conference title game and wins the league’s title, they’re going to get a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.

If Penn State makes it to the Big Ten Conference title game and loses, they are still very likely to make the CFP; but if it’s their second loss, they may not host a first-round CFP game.

And if Penn State does not make to the Big Ten Conference title game, they will still very likely make it to the CFP, since they’ll enter the CFP selection rankings with, I’m figuring, two losses — at most. And two-loss Big Ten teams almost always make the final 12 on CFP’s announcement day.

Bottom-line, Penn State looks to be a near-lock to make the CFP:

Of ESPN’s 13-person expert panel reporting on Sunday, 12 have the Nittany Lions making the CFP and hosting a first-round game. The dozen all have Penn State No. 5, 6 or 7, for an average rank of 5.8. Only ESPN’s Eli Lederman, the network’s new college recruiting reporter, does not have PSU in the CFP. ESPN gives the Nittany Lion a 91% chance of making the CFP.

The Power 4 conference winners — Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 — each get a first-round bye. Seeds No. 5-8 host home games against seeds No. 9-12. First-round games will be played the night of Friday, Dec. 20 and during the day of Saturday, Dec. 21.

Penn State’s Fall 2024 commencement was originally slated for Dec. 21. But, back on April 16, the university announced that “due to a potential conflict with a large-scale event on the University Park campus, Penn State is shifting the date of its fall 2024 commencement ceremonies to Sunday, Dec. 22. This will include both graduate and undergraduate ceremonies for approximately 3,500 University Park and World Campus students.”

The large-scale event? A CFP playoff game.

Penn State’s announcement added, “This change is being made out of an abundance of caution to allow dedicated time to honor graduates’ accomplishments and contribute to a smoother experience for their families and friends. The University recommends anyone who is interested in attending the commencement ceremonies on Dec. 22 to book their accommodations as soon as possible.”

Here’s the full CFP schedule, from the College Football Playoff website :

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