College Football’s Most Overrated Teams in AP Top 25 After Week 8

Nothing about the 2024 college football season has been predictable. That is certainly the case for the top of the AP Top 25, as we have a change at the No. 1 spot for the fourth time after just eight weeks of the season.

Georgia began the season as the No. 1 season, but was usurped by Texas after Week 3, after the Bulldogs nearly dropped a road game to Kentucky. Alabama jumped Texas for the No. 1 spot after its win over Georgia, but the Longhorns returned to the top of the poll following the Crimson Tide’s stunning loss at Vanderbilt. Now, it is Texas’ turn to tumble after its loss to Georgia, bumping Oregon to No. 1.

As is the case every week, there are some programs that the voters have overrated this week. Traditionally, we’ve gone with three teams for this column , but this week is focused on two highly-rated traditional powers looking to break back into the sport’s top tier of College Football Playoff contenders. Both are in great shape to make the 12-team field thanks to light schedules, but have some glaring issues that will prevent them from making deep runs, if they don’t find solutions soon.

Disagree with our rankings? Let us know in the comments below.

No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State’s defense is one of the best in the country, but six weeks into the season, the offense is still missing a key element in the passing game. Drew Allar has build an impressive rapport with tight end Tyler Warren, who may be a cinch for the Mackey Award after his 17-catch, 224-yard outburst against USC. Warren has more than 35% of Penn State’s receptions on the season, and his 513 receiving yards is nearly double the Nittany Lions’ top wide receiver, Harrison Wallace III. Penn State’s wide receivers have had moments, but none has stepped up to be a sure-fire weapon for Allar over the top. The Nittany Lions are just 56th in the FBS in passing plays over 10 yards. If defenses can key in on Warren and the running game without the threat of the Nittany Lions receivers beating them deep, it could spell danger for PSU’s offense as it gets into the heart of the Big Ten schedule.

Slow starts have put Penn State in precarious positions at time this season. The Nittany Lions are just +35 in first half points. They trailed games against Bowling Green and USC at the half, and were tied against Illinois, the only ranked team that they’ve played so far this year. This may not come back to bite them given the light remaining schedule outside of the upcoming home game against Ohio State on Nov. 2, but it certainly will in the postseason.

Penn State’s aforementioned strength of schedule leaves plenty to be desired. The Fighting Illini (which PSU beat 21-7) and Buckeyes are the only currently-ranked teams on the slate. USC, which took Penn State to overtime , is talented but disappointing. West Virginia (which PSU beat 34-12), Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland are all incredible inconsistent. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranks the Nittany Lions’ schedule as 70th in the country.

Betting odds still have Penn State as a distant third to win Big Ten (+350 on bet365) behind Ohio State (+130) and Oregon (+145). The Nittany Lions are also well behind top four for national title, with Georgia and Texas joining the Buckeyes and Ducks. Those four favorites are in at +500 or better, with a steep drop to Penn State at +1200. While betting odds aren’t an absolute measure of a team’s current status, they don’t lend a lot of credence to the idea of the Nittany Lions being in the top tier of college football teams at the moment.

Penn State certainly deserves its top 10 ranking, and is in great shape to reach the College Football Playoff, even if it loses to Ohio State. Outside of an undefeated record against a light schedule, it is hard to rank the Nittany Lions up with the rest of the teams in the top 5.

6. Miami Hurricanes

Miami, now 7-0 after Saturday’s win at Louisville, continues to walk on the wild side . The Hurricanes looked dominant in the nonconference schedule. The Hurricanes ran through Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State and USF by an average of 42 points. The start of The U’s ACC slate has been far from the most difficult three-game run in the league, but Miami has won those games by just four points per game, and the wins did not come without controversy. The ‘Canes beat Virginia Tech on a controversial overturned call on a Hokies Hail Mary, and an uncalled targeting call on the MIami defense against Cal could have changed the outcome of that one-point game.

The win over Louisville isn’t under quite the same scrutiny, though it did involve another crucial overturned call on a Cardinals scoop-and-score that was ultimately ruled a Cam Ward incomplete pass. This was also the best of Miami’s three tight wins, coming on the road against a Louisville squad that was in the Top 25 earlier this season.

Ward has a tendency to take big risks, but it has largely paid off for a Miami offense ranked No. 1 in SP+ . His four-touchdown performance at Louisville should help him in the Heisman race . The ‘Canes defense is another story. The unit gave up just 41 points in the nonconference schedule, and was ranked 21st SP+ at the time. After the three close calls in ACC play, the defense has slid to 43rd in FBS. FPI is even less impressed, ranking the defense 62nd. Explosive plays have become a major issue for the ‘Canes. Only six FBS programs have allowed more plays of 50+ yards than Miami’s seven. No other Power 4 program has given up more than five plays that long. That doesn’t include the 100-yard kick return that Louisville’s Caullin Lacy scored on early in the third quarter.

Miami missed 10 tackles against Louisville, a category that has been a particular issue for the struggling defense. Pro Football Focus ranks The U 101st in the FBS in tackling with a grade of 58.8. “The lunging, leaving your feet, not coming to balance, that’s the stuff we got to get cleaned up and get better at,” head coach Mario Cristobal said after the game, per The Miami Hurricane .

Like Penn State, Miami has a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. Rival Florida State is having a nightmare season, and while November opponents Duke, Georgia Tech and Syracuse are dangerous, the Blue Devils are the highest-ranked team of the bunch by SP+ at No. 37. The real danger comes in a potential ACC championship game against a Clemson team that is significantly improved since the start of the season, and once the College Football Playoff starts. If the ‘Canes defense continues to give up giant chunk plays, even Ward may not be able to bail the program out.

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