Trump leads Harris by 10 points in Florida, UNF poll finds

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin in Florida, according to a poll released today by the University of North Florida.

Fifty-three percent of the people surveyed support Trump for president compared with 43% for Harris, according to the poll from UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab. Two percent of respondents said they were undecided.

On other questions:

• Republican Sen. Rick Scott leads Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 49% to 46% in the U.S. Senate race. One percent said they would vote for someone else, and 4% were undecided.

• Sixty-six percent of respondents said they would vote to legalize personal use of marjiuana by adults. Thirty-two percent would vote no. The proposed constitutional amendment, Amendment 3, would need 60% of votes to pass.

• Sixty percent would vote yes for Amendment 4 in support of abortion rights, putting the question at the threshold for passage. Thirty-two percent would vote no. The amendment’s fate could come down to turnout on Election Day, said Michael Binder, faculty director of the research lab and a professor of political science.

• Forty-one percent said they would vote for Amendment 1, establishing partisan school board elections. Thirty percent said no, and another 30% said they did not know.

RELATED: Read more in Jacksonville Today ‘s Voter Guides

Poll methodology

The poll consisted of 977 likely Florida voters who were surveyed from Oct. 7 to 18. Questions about presidential and Senate races had a margin of error of +/- 3.49 percentage points. The margin of error for other questions was +/- 3.78 points.

After the initial questions about president and Senate choices, undecided respondents were asked in a follow-up question about whom they lean toward if they had to choose between the candidates.

In addition, responses were recorded from those who refused to take the survey but volunteered whom they would vote for before hanging up the phone. These “leaners” and “blurters” are included in the point estimates for president and Senate choices.

“Hurricane Milton making landfall smack dab in the middle of our field period for this poll proved a
big challenge, so we made some methodological choices to increase our coverage and ensure a
representative sample,” Binder said. “Prior research tells us that the folks who blurt out their candidate vote choice and then hang up are very likely to vote, and most of those ‘blurters’ are Trump supporters. This might help explain why his lead widened to 10 points, up from 7 in our last poll back in July.”

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