Boston College hosts Louisville in a key Friday night ACC matchup for Week 9 of the 2024 college football season. The Eagles need a win to move one step closer to bowl eligibility and rebound from a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals are also fighting for their postseason with a 4-3 mark and need a victory here to keep any ACC title hopes alive.
Under first-year coach Bill O'Brien, Boston College started 2-0 with victories over Florida State and Duquesne. The Eagles stumbled at Missouri (27-21) but rebounded by beating Michigan State and Western Kentucky before suffering back-to-back defeats to sit at 4-3.
Friday night's matchup in Chestnut Hill is the first of four road games for Louisville over its final five matchups of '24. With losses to SMU and Miami, it's tough to chart a path to the ACC title game for coach Jeff Brohm's team. However, to have any shot, winning out is a must, which would give Louisville a victory over Clemson on Nov. 2.
Louisville holds a 9-7 series edge. The Cardinals won 56-28 last year, but the Eagles claimed a 34-33 victory the last time these two teams met in Chestnut Hill.
Louisville at Boston College
Location: Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass.
Kickoff: Friday, Oct. 25 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Louisville -7.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Announcers: Anish Shroff, Andre Ware, and Paul Carcaterra
Why Louisville Will Win
Although Louisville's defense is a work in progress, Brohm's team has one of the ACC's top offenses and can simply outpace Boston College on Friday night. The Cardinals average 37.4 points a contest and 7.03 yards a snap, while ranking No. 37 nationally in offensive success rate.
Quarterback Tyler Shough has passed for 2,016 yards and 18 touchdowns to only three picks this year, with Ja'Corey Brooks (36 catches) and Chris Bell (18) his primary targets. The receiving corps did suffer a couple of setbacks this week, as Caullin Lacy opted out for the remainder of the season, and tight end Jamari Johnson was lost due to injury. Boston College ranks No. 70 nationally in pass defense success rate, so Shough should have plenty of chances to find open targets downfield. The Eagles also lost standout cornerback Amari Jackson due to injury in the Virginia loss, leaving a void in a questionable secondary.
Additionally, the ground attack gives this Louisville offense balance and several different ways of hurting a defense. Freshman Isaac Brown (564 yards in '24) has been a breakout star and has a favorable matchup against a Boston College defense allowing 170 rushing yards in ACC games.
Louisville's defense struggled against Miami last Saturday and enters Friday night's game giving up 5.6 yards a snap. Although this unit has been up-and-down in '24, it just needs a few timely stops to get the ball back to Shough.
Related: College Football Predictions for Every Game in Week 9
Why Boston College Will Win
Boston College's offense hasn't scored above 30 points since Week 2 against Duquesne, but this unit has the firepower to keep pace with Louisville. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos averages 224.8 total yards a game and has scored 15 overall times this year. The junior's playmaking ability will be a handful for the Cardinals after their defense struggled to contain Miami quarterback Cam Ward last Saturday.
In addition to putting this game on Castellanos' right arm and legs, Boston College can pound Louisville's suspect rush defense with a couple of running backs. Treshaun Ward (305 yards) and Turbo Richard (271) are the leading options, with Kye Robichaux (239) also in the mix. The Cardinals rank 10th in the ACC against the run, so there should be opportunities for Boston College's offensive line and backfield to move the ball. Mobile quarterbacks have also caused a ton of trouble for Louisville's defense this year, giving Castellanos a chance to shine.
In ACC games this year, the Eagles are giving up 6.4 yards a play and 26.3 points a contest. This unit has struggled to stop the run and the pass at times this year but doesn't give up many big plays and has thrived at preventing touchdowns in the red zone.
If Boston College can get the ground game going and let Castellanos create a few big plays with his legs or arm, O'Brien's team has more than enough pieces in place to pull off the upset.
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Final Analysis
The home team has won the last six meetings in this series. Despite that homefield edge, the Cardinals are the better team and should escape with a victory. Quarterback Tyler Shough and his receivers can exploit a struggling Eagles' secondary, while Brohm's defense does just enough in a high-scoring game.
Prediction: Louisville 34, Boston College 27
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