Dry frontal passage leads to elevated fire risk for southern New England

A cold front will cross New England today, which will trigger some scattered rain and snow showers across the northern tier. Unfortunately, this will be a dry frontal passage for southern New England. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the entirety of southern New England for Saturday.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

Along with the continued dry weather, the breeze will pick up behind the front. Winds will be sustained 10-15mph with gusts up to 30mph. This, combined with low relative humidity at 30-40% will create an elevated fire risk. Small fires will be able to spread and become out of control quickly.

This comes as several brush fires have broken across the region this past week. The largest being the Hawthorne Fire, which has now burned around 121 acres in Berlin and Meriden. Strong winds Thursday and Thursday created flare-ups, allowing the fire to spread. Lighter winds yesterday limited spread, but with a red flag warning in place for this weekend, further spread will be possible.

Crews from around New England have been working on this fire, with ground crews from Rhode Island and New Hampshire reported to be assisting earlier this week. An aerial crew has been assisting with water drops from the air. Crews have been dropping water on the fire since Wednesday. Around 127,000 gallons of water have been dropped on the fire thus far.

Photo byConnecticut National Guard

Ground crews are continuing to dig a perimeter around the fire to box it in. Crews hope to have the fire contained by the end of this weekend, but it may take up to a month to get the fire fully under control with the weather continuing to be uncooperative. Due to the steep and rocky terrain, crews are primarily sticking to daytime operations, with most firefighting activity occurring from 7am to 7pm each day.

Other much smaller fires have broken out across Connecticut as well. These fires have been reported in Vernon (9 acres), Canaan (2.8 acres), Weston Saugatuck Reservoir Island (0.8 acres) and Lyme (0.5 acres).

In Massachusetts, brush fires have been reported in Wilmington, Framingham (Callahan State Park), Holden, Sutton, Monson and Hampden this past week. It took 10,000 gallons of water to extinguish the Sutton fire while a railroad trestle in Monson was damaged by that fire. The fire in Holden was called in by a fire tower on Wachusett Mountain. Rhode Island has seen fires break out in Johnston this week.

Railroad trestle catches fire during a brush fire in Monson, MassachusettsPhoto byMonson Police

Unfortunately, more brush fires are likely to break out throughout this weekend across southern New England. It won't take much for a very small fire to get out of control. The Hawthorne Fire in Connecticut was likely started by a campfire. A stray hot ash likely reignited the fire, which quickly spread with no one around. The Sutton, Massachusetts fire was blamed on a spark from a chainsaw.

An elevated risk for brush fires to break out will continue into Sunday with breezy conditions continuing. A secondary cold front will drop through New England on Sunday. Saturday and Sunday's fronts will likely create scattered showers for the northern third of New England, but central and Southern New England are looking to remain dry. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted central and southern areas for the risk of fires for this weekend.

Below: Storm Prediction Center fire weather outlook for Sunday:

Photo byStorm Prediction Center

Across the northern tier of New England, scattered showers, both rain and snow, will likely be scattered around through the weekend. The secondary cold front may ignite some brief heavier snow showers or snow squalls Sunday afternoon and evening. Rain showers will try to push southward into central and southern New England Sunday evening and night, but will struggle to make it.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Sunday evening:

Photo byHRRR/Tropical Tidbits

Looking ahead, a system will drag its warm front across New England Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially leading to scattered showers. Recent trends have been for a more southward system, which may spread some showers into southern New England Tuesday night, though the bulk of any rain is still expected to be contained to northern areas. There remains no widespread rain chances for southern New England.