<div><p>The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell 0.5% to 99.7 in September, following a 0.3% decline in August. Over the past six months (March to September 2024), the LEI has decreased 2.6%, which is worse than the 2.2% decline in the prior six months (September 2023 to March 2024). Weakness in new factory orders continued to be a significant drag on the index.</p><p>In addition, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined and consumers had a tepid outlook on future business conditions. Although the LEI signaled a recession is likely imminent or underway again in September, the index has been a poor predictor of recessions in the past few years. While it has been inaccurate in forecasting where the overall economy is going, the index includes several manufacturing-specific components that illustrate the recent weakness in the manufacturing sector.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index inched up 0.1% in September to 112.9 and rose 0.9% over the past six months. On the other hand, the Lagging Economic Index declined 0.3% in September to 118.9 and contracted 0.2% over the past six months.</p></div>

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Leading Economic Index Falls Again, Suggesting Recession Signals

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell 0.5% to 99.7 in September, following a 0.3% decline in August. Over the past six months (March to September 2024), the LEI has decreased 2.6%, which is worse than the 2.2% decline in the prior six months (September 2023 to March 2024). Weakness in new factory orders continued to be a significant drag on the index.