Poll: 47% of Americans think a civil war is likely

POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. ( NEWS10 ) — According to a new Marist National Poll , almost half of Americans think the United States could erupt into a second civil war in their lifetime, 163 years after the first Civil War started. The demographics of voters were also split into political parties, generations, racial identities, and genders.

Overall, 34% of voters said it was likely to happen and 13% said it was very likely. While 47% said it was likely, 38% said it was not very likely that we could see a second civil war in this lifetime, 14% said it was not likely at all, and 1% were unsure.

Of Republican, Democratic, and independent parties, Republicans are more likely to say that an incoming civil war is likely at 53% believing so. 40% of Democrats and 41% of independents agree.

58% of Gen Z and Millenial voters believe a civil war is likely, which is more than three times the beliefs of the Silent Generation with 19% of those voters seeing a civil war in the future. Gen X voters who see the likelihood of a civil war total at 46% and Baby Boomers are at 34%.

Beliefs also differ based on race, with 57% of Black Americans thinking there’s some likelihood, and of that 57%, 22% say domestic conflict is very likely. 50% of Latinos and 43% of whites think the possibility of a civil war is either very likely or likely to occur during their lifetime.

And lastly, perception of the likelihood of a civil war in the future differs by gender as well. A majority of women, totaling 51%, believe there is a good chance it will happen, while 57% of men disagree.

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