Leland Vittert’s War Notes: Can Democrats Pivot?

NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.

State of play :

• 77 days to the election
• 21 days to the debate set for Sept. 10
• 30 days since Vice President Kamala Harris accepted the candidacy, and she still hasn’t had a meaningful interaction with the press
• Decision Desk HQ average : Harris +3, as of around 12 p.m. ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.

Can Democrats Pivot?

Last night, everything “unhelpful” for Democrats came out:

• Not talking about the working class
  • I didn’t hear the word “fentanyl” once.
• Obsessively focusing on abortion
• Being criminally disorganized or Machiavellian in their cruelty to Biden (more on this below)
• Obsessed with demonizing former President Donald Trump
  • What’s working against Trump is making him look like clown, but yesterday, it was all about Hitler
• Lacking the Harris pivot to “Freedom and joy”

Look forward : Elections are about the future — today is a new day, and former President Barack Obama headlines tonight.

• Reminder : He’s the one who in 2022 figured out making fun of Republicans and ridiculing them worked better than taking them seriously and demonizing them.
• Safe bet : While Biden got pushed into late-night TV, safe money says President Obama’s address will be front and center in prime time! In fact, they just adjusted the start time for today after what happened yesterday.

Awkward

Coming off the best 30 days in political history, Democrats faced just one challenge: Don’t screw it up …

• Then Monday night started at the DNC
  • “Awkward,” Chris Cillizza said of the Democrats trying to “1) Honor Biden 2) Make sure they told Kamala’s story.”
  • Thought bubble : “Awkward” might be generous.

Democrats speaking last night appeared to be …

• … stuck half in Biden-land…
  • where Trump is a Nazi
  • they want abortion for everyone
  • the economy is great
  • Ukraine is the fight of our time
  • the border is secure
• … and half in Harris’ vision of things where …
  • Trump is weird
  • Freedom and joy will prevail
  • Price controls will solve economic problems
  • Republicans are to blame for the border
  • Afghanistan, Ukraine and Gaza don’t exist
  • Did I mention freedom? Including reproductive freedom

• President Joe Biden’s vision of the world that voters roundly rejected seemed far, far more ingrained last night than Democrats should have allowed.
• Be fair : Republicans have a similar problem now that they are running against Harris and not Biden.

Not to mention the pathetic disorganization of the DNC itself:

• 90-minute security lines
• Clueless volunteers
• A schedule that made no sense

They didn’t get to Biden’s swan song, “Thank you, Joe” speech until 11:30 p.m. ET, well past prime-time television.

• Fair question : What’s worse: You want to run the country and can’t run a convention, or you intentionally snub the president and guy you allegedly are honoring?

Unity : For a party that wants to project “unity”

• None of the former presidents will appear together all week.
• Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi mouthing “We love Joe” last night was laughable
• They still seem much more unified about beating Trump than they are about Harris
• Nothing last night healed any wounds. If anything, it just made the Biden folks more resentful — if that’s possible.

Political reality : When Biden quit, he tied his legacy to that of Harris. He must do everything she (and her team) says to win.

• Woof: Since Harris’ team consists mostly of Obama veterans, Biden is essentially back working for the Obama team that often ridiculed and sidelined him.

The Best 30 Days in Political History

Democrats last night fully matched Republicans’ adrenaline-driven optimism from Night 1 of the RNC

• Democrats because they have Harris rather than Biden as their nominee. I can’t imagine what the DNC would be like if Biden was still the nominee.
• Republicans because Trump had just gotten shot and they were still running against Biden.

Last night, Democrats talked about putting Texas in play, just like Republicans talked about Virginia and Minnesota.

• But a lot changed since Night 1 of the RNC when that seemed possible for them.

Harris enjoyed the best 30 days in political history:

• Unabashed media fawning
• She’s not Trump or Biden
• She has the Obama folks running her messaging
  • “Freedom” and “joy” sound a lot like “hope” and “change”
• She could pick anyone to be her vice president
• And she’s still basically tied

Obama guru David Axelrod said last night as quoted by Mediaite : “Yeah, I’ve been talking about this for some time. Look, she [Kamala Harris] has made extraordinary progress. When we were all in Milwaukee a month ago, and, you know, there was euphoria there and a sense that this race was over, that they [Republicans] were going to win by a landslide, perhaps sweep in big majorities in the House and Senate, And things have changed dramatically. But this is still a very competitive race. If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win. And I think it may well be President Trump because it’s an Electoral College fight.”

Perspective : Harris is up 1.5 in the RealClearPolling average .

• This day in history: August 20, 2020: Biden +7.4 | August 20, 2016: Clinton +5.7

Laws of gravity: Things that go up must come down

• When they come down or go up can decide an election.
• Harris will make a mistake
  • And, as we pointed out on Friday , “price controls” was a huge mistake

Programming alert : Trump needs something better than “Comrade Kamala” — we’ll ask Bill O’Reilly if Trump can change his act and bring his campaign a second life.

Bonus coverage :

• Can Harris reach white working-class voters — last night, we heard (basically) nothing about:
  • Fentanyl
  • The border
  • Inflation — not caused by price gouging
  • Crime?!
• We heard a lot about “reproductive rights”
  • Thought bubble : Abortion is the No. 1 issue for very few, but those few (on both sides) will die on the hill
• And, as Team Trump noted , “DNC Speakers Mention ‘Trump’ 130 More Times Than ‘Crime,’ ‘Inflation,’ and ‘Border’ Combined.”

What Happened to Trump Winning the Black Vote?!

This week, Democrats want to rebuild the intersectional wall of  Black and Latino voters — along with a single white young moment.

• Add white suburban moms to that, and you basically have the Obama map of 2008.

A month ago, polling showed Trump ending Democrats’ 70-plus percent margins in the African American vote.

• He caused a meltdown by linking his popularity with Black voters to his mugshot

Watch tonight : Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., joins us on our DNC set to talk about the Black vote and specifically what Republicans are offering Black Americans.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.

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