Buckhout campaign: Candidate holds narrow lead over primary opponent Smith

Laurie Buckhout holds a slight lead over her Republican primary opponent Sandy Smith in the race for N.C. First Congressional District, Buckhout’s campaign announced on Thursday, citing a poll taken by a Virginia-based firm that conducts polling and other services for GOP candidates and elected officials.

A recent survey conducted by The Tarrance Group showed Buckhout is leading Smith 47% to 45%, a campaign news release states. The remaining 8% of survey respondents were undecided.

“I’m a conservative fighter and the voters across North Carolina’s First Congressional District want a conservative to take the fight to Joe Biden and the D.C. liberals who Don Davis has to report to every day,” Buckhout stated in the release. “I’m honored to have the support of so many good folks already, and I am going to keep working hard to win in March and then on to victory in November.”

The Tarrance Group was commissioned by the Buckhout campaign to survey 400 Republican primary voters who live in one of the 21 counties that make up the First Congressional District.

“A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases,” a memorandum from The Tarrance Group states. “The sample was conducted via 1/3 text-to-web, 1/3 cell phone and 1/3 landline telephone interviews.”

The survey responses were compiled during the period Jan. 28-30.

“Laurie Buckhout’s aggressive grassroots outreach and early radio ads have paid off and Buckhout has taken a small lead in our most recent survey of the NC-01 GOP primary,” the memorandum states.

Emails sent by The Daily Advance to Smith’s campaign seeking comment about The Tarrance Group’s poll were not returned as of Monday.

First-time candidate Buckhout is a resident of Edenton who announced her campaign last October. She and Smith are vying for the Republican nomination in the March 5 primary for the chance to challenge Davis, a first-term congressman from Snow Hill, in the November general election.

Smith, who is a Nash County businesswoman, is making a third consecutive bid for Congress.

In 2022, Davis defeated Smith 52% to 48%, or by 12,216 votes, in the general election under the district’s old Congressional maps. Two years prior, Smith challenged former U.S. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, D-N.C., but lost 54% to 46%, or by 29,122 votes, according to the elections data website Ballotpedia.

Buckhout campaign adviser Jonathan Felts pointed out Smith’s previous election defeats in Buckhout’s press release.

“Sandy Smith has been on every ballot this decade, so she started this race with a huge name (identity) advantage, but she’s already fallen behind,” Felts said. “She knows this campaign is slipping away from her; so we fully expect a new level of desperation in terms of personal attacks from Smith in the coming weeks.

“But Laurie Buckhout is tough and going to stay focused on talking to voters and asking for their vote rather than listening to the ramblings of a crazy person,” Felts stated. “And that’s how we win on Tuesday, March 5.”

Smith said in January that North Carolina’s new congressional map will be the key to electing the first Republican to the First Congressional District since the 19th century.

The new congressional map was approved by the state’s General Assembly in October and added four GOP leaning counties — Currituck, Camden, Lenoir and Wayne — to the 1st District, while excluding Pitt and Franklin counties. The former 1st District included a large portion of Pitt, where Davis defeated Smith by 7,000 votes. Smith defeated Davis by almost 3,600 votes in Franklin in 2022.

North Carolina is comprised of 14 congressional districts, and Republicans are counting on the new 1st District to help them maintain control of the U.S. House heading into 2025.

The Tarrance Group is based in Alexandria, Virginia, and specializes in strategic research and polling services for Republican candidates and elected officials. At its website, The Tarrance Group lists several notable Republicans as clients, including Govs. Glen Youngkin, of Virginia and Mike DeWine, of Ohio, and U.S. Sens. Tom Cotton, Arkansas; Marco Rubio, Florida; Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst of Iowa; and James Lankford of Oklahoma.