Here’s where the House GOP is spending this fall

House Republicans’ campaign arm will book nearly $46 million in advertising this fall as it seeks to grow the narrow majority the GOP won in the midterms.

The reservations will include TV and digital ads across 22 districts in 29 media markets, according to details shared first with POLITICO. Taken together, the reservations provide the clearest picture yet of which seats party strategists see as truly in play and worthy of limited funds for independent expenditures.

Thirteen of the 22 districts are held by Democrats, according to the National Republican Congressional Committee, signaling a primarily offensive posture. And more than a quarter of the total spending will be marshaled against the five Democrats in districts that then-President Donald Trump won in 2020: Reps. Jared Golden in Maine, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington state, Mary Peltola in Alaska, Marcy Kaptur in Ohio and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania.

Other top Democratic targets that will have major reservations placed against them: Reps. Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, Don Davis of North Carolina, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado and Emilia Sykes of Ohio. The NRCC will also spend $2.7 million in open seats in Michigan currently held by Reps. Dan Kildee and Elissa Slotkin .

“The map is moving toward Republicans, providing opportunities to flip seats from Alaska to Maine,” Tom Erickson, the NRCC’s independent expenditure director, wrote in a memo.

The House map has a much smaller number of competitive districts since the post-2020 redistricting, and whichever party wins control of the chamber will likely have only a small majority. So Republicans are also looking to defend their most vulnerable incumbents, including a slew of seats in New York and California that Joe Biden won in 2020.

Accordingly large buys fall in the massive Los Angeles ($2.5 million) and New York City ($2.2 million) media markets, which will each host several competitive congressional races. The NRCC declined to specify which districts were earmarked in each of those markets, but at least part of the buys will include cable spending for Reps. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.).

The NRCC will also likely go on air to defend Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon, Rep. Don Bacon in Nebraska, Reps. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams in New York, David Valadao and John Duarte in California, among others. A buy in the Phoenix market could be used to help Rep. David Schweikert . All hold seats that Biden won in 2020.

No media market saw more money set aside than Portland, Oregon — cash that could be used to protect Chavez-DeRemer or attack Gluesenkamp Perez. The total reservation there was more than $6 million.

The spending blueprint also shows Republicans are hoping to play offense in a few districts Biden won handily. They are reserving $1.3 million in the Hartford, Connecticut, media market where Republican George Logan is seeking a rematch with Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes and $2.7 million in two markets that cover a southern New Mexico seat where former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell and Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez are competing again.

With both parties seeing a smaller number of districts in play this cycle, the NRCC’s initial reservation is slightly smaller than its initial reservation of $52 million in 2022. It was the last of the four major spenders in House races — the two party committees and their main allied super PACs — to lay down buys.

The NRCC’s initial reservations this year surpass that of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which announced a $28 million buy earlier this month. But both of these totals are only an opening salvo, and the committees will add and cut as Election Day nears.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with close ties to Speaker Mike Johnson, laid down its initial reservation of $141 million last month. In some districts, the NRCC’s buys will complement ones placed by CLF and in other districts the committee will be the main outside support for a candidate. For instance, the NRCC did not place a buy in Des Moines, Tucson or Norfolk, which are represented by vulnerable Republican incumbents, or in South Texas, where the GOP is targeting Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez . But CLF laid buys in all four places.

CLF also placed much larger reservations in Los Angeles and New York City than the NRCC, a sign the super PAC plans to take the lead there.

Notably, neither group placed buys in potentially competitive races in Las Vegas, Montana, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, or the Virginia district left open by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger . That could signal that Republicans either don’t yet feel confident in their ability to flip those seats or don’t feel those GOP incumbents will need much outside help to hold on.