How the abortion issue could play in North Carolina

In 2023, North Carolina Republicans seemed to approach the abortion issue with a measure of discomfort. Key Republicans were wary of the perception that their party would sanction cruelty to desperate women. Attempting to preempt the charge, the GOP passed a 12-week restriction instead of the complete ban that many members of the General Assembly strongly preferred.

Alas, the pervasive extremism inside their party has kept the flame of misogyny burning brightly and threatens to cost them an election that, given Joe Biden’s unpopularity, they could easily win.

Sen. Phil Berger exhibited a keen sense of political savvy when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, permitting state legislatures to ban abortion. The Senate leader, a longtime and strident opponent of abortion rights, insisted upon a deliberative process to determine how far the NCGA would go in restricting access to abortion in North Carolina.

The far right of his party wanted a complete ban on abortion with no exceptions, even to save the life of the mother. But Berger, moderate consultant Paul Shumaker and two influential female legislators managed to keep the ultimate legislation limited to 12 weeks.

The bill aroused substantial opposition in North Carolina, but according to the respected Meredith College poll, the ban’s relative restraint kept it from transforming the political climate in the way that total bans have in states like Arizona and Florida.

Shumaker’s plan was an attempt to insulate Republicans from the potent liability that their anti-abortion, anti-woman positioning has created for them over their years in the majority. But the GOP remained deeply dependent upon a right-wing base out for blood. Polling has shown that as much as 80% of Republican voters in North Carolina consider themselves conservative, rather than moderate, and a disproportionate share of these right-wing voters are conservative evangelicals who have craved a total end to abortion rights for 50 years. These people would not easily be appeased.

The influence of the base guaranteed that Republican leaders’ efforts to curtail the power of abortion politics would not last much past the 2023 legislative session. In March 2024, pro-life absolutists won nearly every statewide Republican primary. Shumaker’s own client, Bill Graham — an abortion moderate — finished a distant third in the gubernatorial race, fully 40 points behind ferocious woman-hater Mark Robinson.

Robinson’s de facto running mate, political consultant Hal Weatherman, favors a six-week “heartbeat bill”— not surprising given that his most prominent client, Dan Forest, shared Robinson’s support for a complete ban without exceptions even to save a mother’s life. It is sobering in retrospect to realize that if Roy Cooper hadn’t defeated Forest, North Carolina could well have an abortion restriction as draconian and deadly as the oppressive ban implemented in Idaho.

The party’s protestations that it will not annihilate women’s few remaining rights lack any credibility. The GOP has already proven, by banning abortion after 12 weeks, that it is willing to dramatically truncate abortion access. The GOP is now campaigning on a vision of a state governed by Mark Robinson, with Hal Weatherman as the loyal sidekick, fully committed to banning abortion and unencumbered by any sense of compassion toward women mired in desperate circumstances.

The GOP could, theoretically, emerge from this with its conservative majorities intact. North Carolina is a Southern state — and every other Southern state has implemented a very strict abortion ban. But the political risks inherent in restricting abortion have long been greater here than they are in the darker reaches of the former Confederacy. Polling has shown a pro-choice majority in North Carolina for decades, and the party that has most often lost elections has tended to be Democrats who were too recalcitrant about advocating a pro-choice stance.

In 1984, exit polls showed that many people who voted for Republican gubernatorial nominee Jim Martin were pro-choice and unaware that Martin opposed abortion rights. Had they been so informed, they might have voted for Democrat Rufus Edmisten.

In today’s environment, when women are actively losing rights, the haziness around the abortion issue has distilled into a brutal clarity. The election results may evolve in an accordant direction.

Alexander H. Jones is a policy analyst with Carolina Forward. He lives in Carrboro. Have feedback? Reach him at alex@carolinaforward.org .

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