AccuWeather long-range experts predicting milder winter in Kentucky

By Tom Latek
Kentucky Today

On the heels of one of the warmest summers on record in the United States, AccuWeather long-range experts are forecasting a mild winter with above historical average temperatures across three dozen states, including Kentucky.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said on Monday that three key factors will play a major role in the patterns and weather trends expected across the U.S. this winter.

“We had the warmest winter season on record last December through February. This winter, we expect much of the country to see mild temperatures again,” he said. “During a strong La Niña we typically see a dominant storm track over the northwest U.S. and western Canada. We will have a weaker La Niña for most of this winter. There could be changes in the storm track during this winter season. It could dive farther south into California, which we do expect this year. This can result in periods of mild Pacific air moving across the central and eastern U.S. at times. However, with a weak signal of La Nina, some cold can make pushes into the Midwest and Northeast.”

La Niña occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain below the historical average for an extended period, which can significantly influence weather patterns across North America, including the trajectory of snowstorms.

The second factor is the polar vortex, which is a mass of cold air that is tightly bound to polar regions by strong counterclockwise winds known as the “polar low.” It is not expected to have a big effect on the lower 48 states.

The third key factor is the temperature of the water in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern and Northeast Pacific. Water temperatures in the Gulf are expected to be higher than historical averages, which can contribute to mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.

As a result, the demand for heating will be less than average in 75 percent of the U.S, according to Pastelok. “December through February, the warmest areas of the country, compared to the average, are going to be from the South, central southern Plains states through the Mississippi Valley, up through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.”

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