Former President Donald Trump is closing in on announcing his running mate to fill out the Republican ticket, and indications are that Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is the favorite for the job.
Trump is reportedly considering choosing between Vance, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) to join him on the GOP ticket. An announcement is expected by the beginning of next week.
Vance is by far the superior choice of the three finalists. A first-term senator and author of the bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, the junior Ohio senator would bring youthful energy to the Trump ticket but also sends a clear message that the political movement that Trump has built will outlast him. Furthermore, his affable demeanor and charisma make him a strong surrogate for the ideas and policies he and Trump support.
More than any other Republican politician, Vance is the natural heir to the populist movement that propelled Trump to the White House first in 2016 and potentially again this year. And for a ticket led by a term-limited candidate, Vance would provide Trump with a running mate that allows voters to think about the next 12 years, not simply the next four.
Should Trump win, whoever is his vice president will immediately become a front-runner for the Republican nomination in 2028. But of the three finalists to join the ticket, only Vance carries the same ideological vision for domestic and foreign policy that Trump does.
While old-guard Republicans shudder at the market skepticism that Vance has brought to the Senate, as well as his willingness to embrace private-sector labor unions and some social welfare programs, the fact is that it is those policies that have made him the heir to the Trump movement.
Trump catapulted onto the political scene by appealing to the pains that voters had felt under the administrations of former Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton. He vowed to end unfair trade deals, bring manufacturing jobs back to the midwest cities and towns that had long relied on industry, end U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, and secure the border.
The simplicity of this message is what made Trump the political juggernaut he is today. But what happens after he leaves the political scene? Try as they might, the vast majority of Republican politicians do not share Trump's skepticism of trade deals and entanglements abroad.
But Vance does. And not only does he share Trump's policy vision on these matters, but he has also shown an intellectual and moral grasp of the ethical and philosophical principles that inform these policies in a way that no other politician has.
Take comments that Vance made in 2019 , shortly after he converted to Catholicism, where he noted that social conservatives had made a self-defeating alliance with "market libertarians" in the political arena.
"I think the Republican Party has been too long a partnership between social conservatives and market libertarians, and I don’t think social conservatives have benefited too much from that partnership," he said. "Part of social conservatism’s challenge for viability in the 21st century is that it can’t just be about issues like abortion, but it has to have a broader vision of political economy and the common good."
Vance made those comments three years before he won a seat in the Senate, showing that his moral principles have informed his policy goals long before he ever ran for office. But, since entering the Senate, he has shown a willingness to work with any lawmaker who aligns with his common good conservative policy agenda.
Just weeks after taking office, he introduced bipartisan legislation to address the safety failures that contributed to the train accident in East Palestine, Ohio. He has also pushed bills to ban diversity, equity, and inclusion in government offices, prevent government officials from cozying up to pharmaceutical companies, and eliminate anti-competitive corporate handouts .
In foreign policy, he has led the charge in fighting efforts to send billions of unchecked dollars to Ukraine in its war against Russia while demanding that European nations take the lead in providing funding and resources for their own defense.
While Vance is by far the vice president contender most ideologically aligned with Trump, there are still downsides in choosing him. The most glaring is Trump losing a major political ally in Congress.
If a Trump-Vance ticket were to win the presidential election, Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) would likely appoint a more establishment-minded successor to Vance's vacated Senate seat. A special election would also be held in 2026 to fill out the remaining two years of the term, forcing the GOP to defend a Senate seat that would be heavily targeted by the Democratic Party, despite Ohio's Republican leanings.
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And despite being a sitting senator and one of Trump's most visible campaign surrogates, Vance is still relatively unknown to the nation. He likely does not provide any added electoral benefit to Trump's candidacy.
But one thing is certain, if Vance becomes vice president, Trump's political legacy will be secured in 2028 and beyond.
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