Is JD Vance the right pick for Trump's VP?

When Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) stood before the Republican National Convention this month to accept his party's nomination for vice president of the United States, he made a special point to promise to "never take for granted" the trust placed in him by Donald Trump. Perfunctory obsequiousness to the GOP's standard-bearer notwithstanding, Vance is correct that in choosing him as his running mate, Trump was indeed conferring onto him a measure of trust — not simply as a potential presidential successor, but as a campaign asset whose presence on the ticket would energize the MAGA base. Then the ground shifted under their feet.

What had once seemed like an inevitable Trump rout over President Joe Biden suddenly became a serious contest after the president ended his campaign and endorsed now-presumptive nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in his stead. In an instant, the dynamics that led Trump — at the urging of his son Don Jr . — to select Vance had been turned upside down. At the same time, Vance's initial outings as a candidate were widely criticized as awkward and non-compelling.

Has the freshman Ohio senator and intended scion of the MAGA movement become a drag on the very ticket he was meant to energize, or does Vance remain a potent force for Trump on the campaign trail?

'The road got a lot harder'

Vance has contributed little to Trump's reelection campaign, say some Republicans, while introducing a host of vulnerabilities. He is the "worst choice of all the options," one House Republican said to The Hill on condition of anonymity. "He adds nothing to the Trump ticket. He energizes the same people that love Trump." If Trump were to lose in November, it would be "because of this pick," another House Republican said.

Noting that Trump is "all about casting" in an interview with CNN, former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci said Vance is "not living up to the expectations" set during the selection process. Trump "hated Vance's [RNC] speech, he doesn't like Vance's performance on stage. He thinks he's very dull."

Trump picked Vance at the "peak of the party's confidence about the 2024 election," Axios said. Biden's decision shortly thereafter to drop out ended up "scrambling the polls and detonating the Trump campaign's assumptions about the electoral playing field." Trump's electoral road "got a lot harder" after Biden's decision, said one House Republican to the outlet. Vance was the "only pick that wasn't the safe pick. And I think everyone has now realized that."

Vance is "making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention," CNN's Harry Enten said on X.

Vance is "barreling toward Palin territory," Talking Point Memo's Josh Marshall said, referencing 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. People have begun to "expect news about him to be weird or embarrassing. Hard to undo that once it takes hold, especially if you are super weird and embarrassing."

'What matters to the vast majority of voters'

As much as Vance may have struggled in the opening days of his time on the ticket, "Trump has shown no indication that he has buyer's remorse" over his pick, Axios said. "I'd do the same pick. He's doing really well. He's really caught on," Trump said on a recent press call, after being asked whether he'd have chosen Vance knowing that Harris would be the Democratic nominee.

Although Vance may struggle at campaign rallies , he has "quickly settled into his role as chief Trump surrogate" during television interviews, CNN said. And rather than serve as a strike against him, the fact that Vance is a former "never-Trumper" has only raised his appeal among some Republicans. Vance's path to MAGA-dom means he "learned and saw, and that's what I encourage all people to do, whether they be Democrats or Republicans," said Roanoke Valley Republican Women President Barbara Duerk to the network.

Ultimately, Vance's struggles are not, in and of themselves, a liability for the Trump campaign, since he "isn’t so unpopular that he would seem to be a reason for Trump-inclined voters to abandon Trump," The Washington Post said. The name on the top of the ticket is "what matters to the vast majority of voters."