Sherrod Brown leading by 4 points over GOP challenger in Ohio despite Trump’s lead in state

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is polling better than his Republican challenger while former President Donald Trump has a much larger lead in the same state.

Brown is leading Republican nominee Bernie Moreno by 4 points, with Brown getting 46% of the support and Moreno getting 42% of the support, according to a new poll commissioned by AARP from the bipartisan team of Democratic Impact Research and Republican Fabrizio Ward. The same poll shows Trump has a strong hold over the one-time swing state, with a 9-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumed Democratic nominee.

Brown is maintaining this level of support because he has a 12-point lead with Ohio independent voters, and 14% of Republicans indicated they would support Brown.

Among voters over 50, Moreno hangs on to a 2-point lead over Brown, and 94% of those older voters said they were committed to voting in November.

“The Senate race in Ohio is a toss-up among voters 50-plus,” said Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward. “If a campaign wants to appeal to older voters, they need to be talking about issues like supporting family caregivers and support to allow seniors to age at home ."

At the same time, 48% of voters favor Trump, 39% favor Harris, and 9% favor independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, who has not gained ballot access in Ohio.

The poll also asked voters their opinion on Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Trump’s running mate. Among all voters, 46% rated him favorably, while 41% rated him unfavorably.

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Thursday's poll was the second favorable poll in as many days for Brown, who is widely considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in a cycle that is expected to be incredibly difficult. Republicans don't have to defend any vulnerable seats in November, while Democrats are playing defense in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, and Ohio.

A smaller poll for Inside Elections that asked 435 likely voters in Ohio's 9th Congressional District how they felt about Brown showed the incumbent senator beating Moreno by 13 points. Trump won the district handily in 2020 but is running neck and neck with Harris in the latest poll there.