The 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off on Thursday, Aug. 15, at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. After being a World Golf Championship event from 2019-2021, the FedEx St. Jude Championship now serves as the first leg of the PGA Tour's postseason for the third consecutive season.
TPC Southwind (par 70) stretches 7,243 yards and features tight Zoysiagrass fairways, 3-inch Bermudagrass rough, 11 holes with water hazards, and firm Champion Bermuda green complexes. Designed by Ron Pritchard with help from Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green as player consultants, the course has hosted the tournament every year since opening in 1989. TPC Southwind is known for being one of the toughest and most demanding tee-to-green tests on the PGA Tour, as the track consists of long and grueling par-4s and few optimal birdie opportunities. Along with the brutal Memphis humidity late in the summer, it's not surprising that the winning score has eclipsed 15-under only three times over the past 14 years.
For the second time in FedEx Cup history, only the top 70 players in the standings qualified for the postseason, compared to 125 in previous years. The field this week includes each of this year's Comcast Business TOUR Top 10, with Scottie Scheffler (1), Xander Schauffele (2), Rory McIlroy (3), Collin Morikawa (4), and Wyndham Clark (5) leading the way. Ludvig Aberg (6), Sahith Theegala (7), Hideki Matsuyama (8), Sungjae Im (9), and Shane Lowry (10) round out the top 10 heading into TPC Southwind.
The top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings following this week move onto the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. From there, the top 30 take the trip to East Lake in Atlanta for the 2024 Tour Championship.
Let's get into my best bets this week at TPC Southwind!
BEST BETS
Collin Morikawa (+1400 BetRivers Enhanced)
It's got to happen at some point, right? I've tailed Morikawa countless times throughout the 2024 season thus far, and I'm sure weekly readers of this column are frustrated he's yet to cash for an outright ticket up to this point. I'm right there with you. Despite the constant disappointments, I still believe the two-time major champion deserves one final opportunity this week in Memphis, where he's finished T5 and T13 the last two years during the first leg of the PGA Tour's postseason.
Admittedly, Morikawa is coming off a lackluster performance a few weeks ago at the Olympics in Paris, where he finished T24 and was never in contention for a medal at any point in the tournament. But when looking deeper into the metrics, all of Morikawa's issues at Le Golf National stemmed from his short game, as he dropped nearly two strokes around the greens and ranked 57th out of 60 players in SG: Putting for the week. While he's now lost strokes around the greens and with the flat stick in two consecutive events, the elite ball-striking abilities have quietly returned in full force. Morikawa popped for 9.5 strokes from off the tee and with his irons at The Open Championship and followed that up by gaining 8.8 strokes at the Olympics.
Morikawa enters this week sitting fourth in the betting odds, but my model has him ranked as the best player in the 70-man field over the past 24 rounds, even ahead of World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. I think that's telling of how solid Morikawa has been playing recently despite failing to get across the finish line in first place. The 27-year-old California native ranks second in Fairways Gained, second in SG: Approach, third in SG: Tee To Green, third in Proximity 150-175 Yards, fourth in Proximity 175-200 Yards, fourth in Par-4s: 400-450 Yards, fifth in Bogey Avoidance, sixth in Proximity 125-150 Yards, seventh in Scrambling, eighth in Par-4s: 450-500 Yards, ninth in SG: OTT, and 12th in Greens Gained over the past 24 rounds.
While I worry that Morikawa's notable improvements this summer with his short game have fizzled with the season nearing it's end, he was previously on a tremendous nine-start stretch where he gained at least two strokes combined in those categories. Both of his recent blunders came across the Atlantic Ocean in Europe, and it's worth mentioning he gained over two strokes in the short-game categories each of the last two years on this course.
With a strong course history at TPC Southwind, incredible recent ball-striking numbers, and countless close calls during the 2024 campaign, I have to give Morikawa one final chance this week in Memphis.
Sungjae Im (+4500 FanDuel)
Sungjae has been part of my betting card three of the last four times he's tee'd it up, finishing T12 at the John Deere Classic, T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and T7 at The Open Championship. The 26-year-old South Korean has been outstanding since a woeful first three months of the season, as his T41 last week at the Wyndham Championship was his first result worse than 12th in non-majors in over five months.
After failing to finish inside the top 30 in his first two attempts at TPC Southwind, Sungjae came 12th here in 2022 and T6 in 2023. The two-time PGA Tour winner has seen his ball-striking numbers and final result on the leaderboard improve with each passing start, amassing to 5.85 strokes combined from off the tee and with his irons last year. Sungjae is trending in the proper direction in Memphis.
Among all players in the field, Im ranks first in Par-4s: 400-450 Yards, third in SG: Around The Green, ninth in SG: Tee To Green, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Scrambling, 18th in SG: Putting (Bermuda), and 19th in SG: OTT over the past 24 rounds. While he dropped over three strokes with his irons in Greensboro last week, that was the first time he gained less than 1.5 strokes since the U.S. Open in mid-June.
Accuracy-based, positional golf courses have always been where Sungjae plays his best golf, and that's exactly the setup featured at TPC Southwind. With top-10 finishes in six of his past ten starts leading into this week, I think I have to ride with Sungjae for one more week.
LONG SHOT PICKS
Billy Horschel (+5000 BetRivers Enhanced)
Horschel hasn't ever shied away from the proverbial "big moment" in his career, hence his performance a few weeks ago at Royal Troon, where he impressively finished T2. The 37-year-old veteran claimed the FedExCup title in 2014 after winning the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship, not to mention other prestigious wins at the 2022 Memorial Tournament and 2021 WGC Dell-Technologies Match Play event. With two consecutive top-10 finishes entering Memphis and three top-25 results in four previous trips to TPC Southwind, I'm willing to bet Billy takes down another big boy this week.
After amassing the second-best ball-striking week of his PGA Tour career at The Open, I anticipated a regression from Horschel in Greensboro but was pleasantly surprised to see he gained another 5.3 strokes in that category. The former Florida Gator has now posted his two best ball-striking performances of the season in back-to-back weeks, telling me his game is right where he wants heading into the postseason.
Horschel has always had an affinity for Bermuda putting surfaces, with four of his eight career victories coming on courses with Bermuda greens. He ranks 19th among all players in the field in SG: Putting (Bermuda) over the past 24 rounds and just gained 3.82 strokes last week at the Wyndham Championship, where there are also Champion Bermuda green complexes. Additionally, Horschel popped for 3.0 strokes on the Champion Bermuda greens utilized at Pinehurst No. 2 for the 2024 U.S. Open.
It's also worth pointing out that Horschel has posted many solid results on courses with Zoysiagrass fairways, which often promote flyers and make some players uncomfortable. Horschel has a win, a solo second, and two other top-10s at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, perhaps the most notable Zoysiagrass track on Tour. Then, he finished T8 at Valhalla in this year's PGA Championship and came T6 in his lone appearance at Narashino Country Club in 2019 for the ZOZO Championship. He even gained over eight strokes in ball striking at the 2018 PGA Championship in St. Louis, where Bellerive Country Club featured Zoysiagrass fairways.
With plenty of signs pointing towards 'Billy Ho' this week, I'll take my chances at 50/1 odds.
Sepp Straka (+8000 FanDuel)
Straka has cooled off late in the summer since a sparkling stretch from April to June, but 80/1 odds were enough to get me back on board this week. The two-time PGA Tour winner has racked up too many high-end finishes on Bermudagrass courses to ignore, including a runner-up in Memphis to Will Zalatoris in 2022.
Since the start of 2022, Straka has earned a win and a T5 at PGA National, a runner-up finish at the Country Club of Jackson, a T3 and a T5 at Harbour Town, a T7 at East Lake, a T8 at Quail Hollow, and a T9 at TPC Sawgrass. All six of those courses (and TPC Southwind) feature Bermuda putting surfaces, and most annually host the top players on Tour. The 31-year-old Austrian also resides in Birmingham, Alabama, and went to college at the University of Georgia, so he's plenty familiar with the Southeast region of the United States since making the full-time leap from Europe.
Even though he hasn't finished inside the top 20 since The Memorial over two months ago, many underlying statistics suggest Straka is still in proper form to contend this week. He ranks fourth in Fairways Gained and 15th in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds, and he was seventh in SG: Approach and 11th in SG: Tee To Green at the Olympics despite placing T35. Straka has also gained at least three strokes in ball striking in eight of his past 12 outings.
While his inconsistent nature does cause concern, there aren't many players from this far down in the betting board that I trust to go toe-to-toe with the big guns as I do with Straka. I believe he's one of the few options from outside 60/1 with legitimate winning chances this week.
All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *
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