The 2024 BMW Championship begins on Thursday, Aug. 22, at Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado. The PGA Tour returns to Colorado for the first time since 2016, while Castle Pines was last seen hosting THE INTERNATIONAL from 1986-2006.
Castle Pines Golf Club (par 72) is the longest course in PGA Tour history, stretching 8,105 yards with four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass fairway rough, ten holes with water hazards, 77 sand bunkers, and firm Bentgrass/Poa green complexes. But despite the daunting length, the track sits a whopping 1.2 miles above sea level, and the elevation change makes the true distance around 7,300-7,400 yards (for a par 72).
With only the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings qualifying for the second leg of the postseason, most of the Tour's biggest stars make up the field this week in Castle Rock. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Hideki Matsuyama currently lead the charge for the FedEx Cup title and are joined by notables like Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, and Colorado native Wyndham Clark. As a reminder, only the top 30 in the standings move on to the Tour Championship in Atlanta.
Related: 2024 BMW Championship: Course & Field Preview, Key Stats, + Odds
Let's get into my best bets at Castle Pines Golf Club this week!
Viktor Hovland (+2250 BetMGM Boost)
The 2024 season has undoubtedly been disastrous for Hovland, as he's failed to get back in the winner's circle, missed the cut at three of the four major championships, and posted just three top-20s in 15 outings. Not quite what anyone anticipated, including Viktor himself, after a mammoth finish to the 2023 campaign, capped off by winning the FedEx Cup title.
While it's been a year filled with struggles, the defending BMW Championship winner has still been spectacular in the ball-striking department. Hovland has popped for at least four strokes in that category in seven of his past 11 events, including 8.6 strokes last week in Memphis. That's his second-best ball-striking week of the season, trailing only the 10.5 strokes he gained at Valhalla for the PGA Championship -- another Nicklaus-designed course.
Hovland's sturdy track record on other Nicklaus courses is a pivotal reason I'm bypassing his lack of long-term form entering Castle Pines. Not only did he finish T3 at Valhalla earlier this season, but he also won at Muirfield Village last year and finished third at the Workday Charity Open hosted at 'Jack's Place' in 2020. Hovland had another close call at The Concession at the 2021 WGC Workday Championship, where he finished T2. It's also worth pointing out that Olympia Fields, the site of last year's BMW Championship, holds a lot of similarities to Muirfield Village.
Bentgrass putting surfaces have always been Hovland's favorite on Tour, as Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields, and East Lake Golf Club, the sites of his three most recent victories, all feature (some sort of) Bentgrass greens. While Hovland ranks 15th out of 50 players in the field this week in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) over the past 24 rounds, he trails only Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy in that category among the high-profile players. He also ranks 15th in SG: Firm Greens during that same span.
Given Hovland's total driving abilities, proven track record on Bentgrass greens and Nicklaus designs, and sharp tune-up event last week in Memphis, I couldn't help but jump on at 22.5/1 odds in a 50-man field.
Patrick Cantlay (+2500 BetRivers Enhanced)
The return of Patty Ice? Cantlay, perhaps better known as the BMW Championship merchant, enters Castle Rock with four consecutive top-25 finishes, highlighted by a T3 at the U.S. Open for his best career major championship result. The eight-time PGA Tour winner appears close to picking up his first win since the 2022 BMW Championship at Wilmington Country Club, and there are many reasons to believe Castle Pines should suit his game marvelously.
First, Cantlay has always had an affinity for Nicklaus' tracks, winning at Muirfield Village twice (2019 & 2021) and Sherwood Country Club for the 2020 ZOZO Championship. Cantlay also finished second at The American Express in 2021 with two additional top-10s at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. Among all players in the field this week, Cantlay ranks first in SG: Nicklaus Designs over the past 24 rounds.
Cantlay has also been spectacular at handling altitude changes in his career, with a win and four other top-10 results at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, a solo second at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona, and a T6 at Chapultepec in Mexico. While Caves Valley (Maryland), the site of Cantlay's 2021 BMW Championship win, wasn't played at altitude, the course does go through notable elevation changes like players will see at Castle Pines. Plus, Caves Valley's superintendent is Kyle Steidel, who was previously employed at Muirfield Village.
Last, the 32-year-old veteran has dominated on Bentgrass putting surfaces, with six of his seven individual victories coming on that surface. Making enough birdie putts will be crucial this week, and I have no doubts about Cantlay's abilities in that department. He gained a PGA Tour record 14.5 strokes on the Bentgrass greens to beat Bryson DeChambeau at Caves Valley in 2021.
Among all players in the field, Cantlay ranks fourth in SG: Tee To Green, seventh in Birdie or Better Percentage, eighth in Bogey Avoidance, ninth in SG: Approach, and 12th in SG: Around The Green over the past 24 rounds. Despite a bit of a letdown last week with a T12 finish, Cantlay gained nearly eight strokes over the final 54 holes at TPC Southwind. All parts of his game are clicking right now, and Castle Pines sets up too perfectly for his skillset to ignore. It's just a matter of putting it together for four consecutive rounds.
Wyndham Clark (+3500 BetRivers Enhanced)
Given his inability to string together four consecutive sub-par rounds for most of the summer, Wyndham is admittedly a risky outright bet this week. But it's a rare homecoming opportunity for the Colorado native, as the PGA Tour hasn't visited 'The Centennial State' in nearly a decade. The 2023 U.S. Open winner will undoubtedly have added motivation as he returns to Castle Pines, a track he's played "30-40 times" in his own words, and he enters this week with four top-15 finishes in his last five starts.
As mentioned above, Clark's lack of consistency has forced him out of contention most weeks during the latter half of the 2024 campaign. However, he's still flashed his unquestionable upside on a few occasions, as he gained 5.4 strokes in the final round at the RBC Heritage (T3), 4.1 strokes in the final round at the Travelers Championship (T9), and 6.4 strokes in the final round at the Scottish Open (T10). Despite not having his best stuff for much of those tournaments, he still managed to creep into the top 10.
Since missing the cut at The Open, Wyndham has responded with a T14 at the Olympics and a T7 last week in Memphis. He gained strokes to the field in all four major categories in each event, totaling 8.4 strokes at Le Golf National and 7.8 at TPC Southwind. While he never contended for the trophy at either tournament because of one sour round, the three-time PGA Tour winner appears close to firing on all cylinders again. I'll take 35/1 odds that he is.
Even though it's been a disappointing year for Clark in terms of his performance at the four major championships, he's still been one of the best players on Tour at the Signature Events against the best of the best. In addition to finishing in the top 10 at the RBC Heritage and Travelers, he also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. Not to mention two close calls at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS Championship, where Clark bested everyone not named Scottie Scheffler. We know Clark can take down this 50-man field, and given all of his experiences with altitude and mountain golf, I'm jumping back on board this week.
Will Zalatoris (+9000 BetRivers Enhanced)
Zalatoris is one of the few players from further down the odds board who I believe has the upside to win this tournament, and funny enough, he's won at Castle Pines in his career. 'Willy Z' picked up his first professional victory at the 'TPC Colorado Championship' in 2019, moving him to the top of the Korn Ferry Tour points list and earning him a spot into the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot, where he wound up finishing T6. From there, the rest is history.
After finishing T2 at the Genesis Invitational, T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T9 at the Masters early on in the season, Zalatoris went without a top-40 result in May, June, or July and failed to build on his momentum. But last week in Memphis, despite missing three cuts in a row leading into the week, the 2022 FedEx St. Jude winner gained over two strokes ball striking and 2.5 strokes in the short-game categories en route to a T12 -- his best finish since mid-April. Don't look now, but Zalatoris has quietly gained strokes from tee to green in three consecutive events.
The issues with the putter have not yet yielded Zalatoris, but it's worth pointing out that Bentgrass has been his preferred surface since being a full-time PGA Tour player. Firm putting surfaces have suited him better, too, ranking 18th in that category over the past 24 rounds. He's also been strong on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses in his career, finishing T5 at The Memorial and T6 at The American Express in 2022. Zalatoris' career-low round on Tour (61) also occurred at the Country Club of Jackson at the 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship.
While I don't want to overhype Zalatoris' T12 last week at TPC Southwind, there have been rumblings around the industry that his ball speed has returned near normal levels, suggesting he's starting to find his form again. Considering those whispers and the flash he showed in Memphis, I'm willing to roll the dice with Willy Z at near 100/1 odds.
All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *
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