The final leg of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Playoffs begins on Thursday, Aug. 29, at East Lake Golf Club, where the TOUR Championship has been held every year since 2004. Only the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup Standings qualified for the tournament, where they will compete for enhanced prize purses and a whopping $25 million given to the FedEx Cup champion.
Since the PGA Tour implemented the staggered start to the TOUR Championship in 2019, no player has begun lower than 4-under and gone on to win the tournament. Rory McIlroy is the only player to have won at East Lake when starting below 8-under, as he accomplished the feat twice (-5 in 2019 and -4 in 2022). Three of the past four winners were first or second in the FedEx Cup Standings entering the week.
As a reminder, here's where each of the 30 players in the field will start the TOUR Championship:
Let's get into my favorite picks to win the 2024 TOUR Championship at East Lake!
BEST BET
Hideki Matsuyama (+1200 FanDuel w/ Starting Strokes)
While I believe Scottie or Xander are the (more than) likely options to come away with the FedEx Cup, Hideki is undoubtedly my next-best choice among the other 28 players in the field. Sitting just two strokes back of Scheffler and one back of Schauffele, I was surprised to see 12/1 odds alongside Matsuyama's name on Monday morning, even if he's coming off a WD last week in Colorado.
Hideki has made some less-than-ideal comments surrounding his back injury that forced him to withdraw from the BWM Championship, saying he was around "40-50 percent" at the start of the week. While some folks may be worried about getting burned again, there's no way Matsuyama WD's from the TOUR Championship unless something is drastically wrong, given the hefty purses and his chances of taking down the title. Plus, Matsuyama has been a player who's dealt with countless injuries over the years, and we've seen him perform surprisingly well despite rumors of him laboring. Truthfully, I'm not that worried.
It's been a mixed bag for Hideki at East Lake during his career, with three top-10s but also three finishes outside the top 20 in nine career appearances. However, I believe a new-look East Lake will force all 30 players in the field to go about business differently this time, which could favor a player like Matsuyama who doesn't have a consistent track record here. Numerous players have spoken this week about how East Lake looks completely different following Andrew Green's restoration process.
With that being the case for East Lake this week, I am putting all my eggs into the 'Current Form' basket, and since the end of major championship season, it's hard to argue against Matsuyama being the best player on Tour. The Japanese superstar won the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, earned the Bronze Medal at the Paris Olympics, and nearly held the first-round lead at Castle Pines before withdrawing. Yes, I know he's rather risky given his back situation, but there's no denying the upside -- and that's what we need to beat Scottie and Xander.
Among all players in the field, Hideki ranks second in SG: Off The Tee, fourth in SG: Tee To Green, fourth in SG: Par-4s, sixth in Fairways Gained, sixth in Bogey Avoidance, eighth in Scrambling, ninth in SG: Around The Green, and 13th in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds. And while he's not known for being a strong Bermudagrass putter, he gained over eight strokes on the greens en route to victory in Memphis two weeks ago and popped for 3.0 strokes on the Bermuda surfaces at the U.S. Open earlier this summer.
Anyone other than Scottie or Xander winning the FedEx Cup this season would feel like a bit of a crime, but Hideki has put together one heck of a season. He won a FedEx Cup Playoff event and arguably had the round of the season to take down The Genesis Invitational in February. Matsuyama also won an Olympic Medal, finished sixth at the U.S. Open and PLAYERS Championship, T8 at the Memorial Tournament, T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open. If anyone besides Scheffler or Schauffele were to win, I think Hideki is the most deserving.
After popping for 12.6 strokes in Paris and 12.8 in Memphis, Matsuyama looked well on his way to another outstanding performance, gaining nearly five strokes in only one round at Castle Pines before his WD. It will take another otherworldly outing to take down the top two in the standings, but given the run he's been on, I have to take one final chance on Deki this week. He's been too good.
All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *
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