College Football Playoff Predictions: Preseason Bracketology

I’ve always wanted my own Bracketology Bunker.

When I see Joe Lunardi projecting the NCAA men’s basketball tournament on ESPN, it usually looks as if he’s broadcasting from a bomb shelter stocked primarily with canned peaches and Northeast Conference media guides. It seems like a cozy cocoon where one can escape the world, munch on some Del Monte and skim the bios of the Robert Morris University starting five before hopping on television and explaining how 12-loss Texas Tech still has a chance to snag an at-large bid.

But I’m not sure we need anything so elaborate for football as the College Football Playoff expands this season. With all due respect to myself and ESPN’s Heather Dinich and the rest of us who will be conscripted into the football version of this endeavor, it’s only 12 teams. Lunardi and Jerry Palm (and On3’s excellent James Fletcher III) have to predict how 68 teams will get slotted and which of the unlucky (un-good?) rest will be relegated to the NIT. So good news, On3. I won’t be charging you to retrofit my guest room.

I will be attempting to predict the bracket, though.

Each week of the college football season, I’ll be guessing at which teams will get seeded where and which are on the bubble hoping someone drops. This will start out highly hypothetical and (we hope) get more precise as more data points arrive. Those will begin rolling in Saturday when six FBS schools start their seasons with Week 0 games.

Let’s break down the bracket. This is my opinion. I don’t particularly care if the AP or coaches’ poll disagrees with me. Once the College Football Playoff selection committee begins ranking teams, I will use their previous ranking to attempt guesses at their next rankings. Because after all, that group is who picks the teams. Just as Lunardi and Palm try to use their extensive knowledge of past selection committee decisions to predict the basketball bracket, I’ll do the same. But we won’t see a committee ranking until Nov. 5. So until then, feel free to yell at me if you disagree.

Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out when you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5.

The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game. Yes, it is incredibly stupid that those games aren’t also on campus like the first-round games. Something to think about for 2026 College Football Playoff and beyond, College Football Overlords.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
The Buckeyes bolstered an already-excellent roster by adding the best player in the transfer portal (former Alabama safety Caleb Downs), workhorse back (former Ole Miss tailback Quinshon Judkins) and a new QB1 (former Kansas State QB Will Howard). It’s national title or bust, and this team looks capable on paper of winning one. But it also has to play Oregon and Michigan in the regular season and then fight through this bracket.

2. Georgia (SEC champ)
The Bulldogs remain one of the deepest teams in America, but coach Kirby Smart has complained recently about getting his backups strip-mined by teams looking to make them starters. That’s a reality of the NIL/open transfer era, but Georgia has managed to retain the best line of scrimmage talent. This group will be able to run the damn ball and stop the run, but it also has to play at Alabama, at Texas and at Ole Miss. It won’t be an easy path.

3. Florida State (ACC champ)
Did Florida State lose too much from last year’s team to repeat as ACC champ? Only if you believe that Mike Norvell hasn’t recruited well enough out of high school and the transfer portal to build a consistent winner. The Seminoles have been among the best portal recruiters since the rules changed, so it’s quite possible they just reload.

4. Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Howard is Ohio State’s starting quarterback because the Wildcats decided to roll with sophomore Avery Johnson. College football hasn’t seen a QB this fast since Kyler Murray. The question is whether Johnson’s arm can complement his legs. If it can, Kansas State’s offense and a deep defense can win a league that is incredibly balanced and could be a bloodbath come November.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Alabama
The celebration (by everyone else) of Nick Saban’s retirement is going to be short-lived. Kalen DeBoer, who led Washington to the national title game last year, has a loaded roster that will not fall off in the way that Alabama’s SEC rivals had hoped.

6. Oregon
Dan Lanning has been building a roster to compete with the Ohio States and Georgias. On paper, it looks like he’s done exactly that. But we’ll need to see it on the field this season. It doesn’t hurt that Oregon grabbed former Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel from the portal. Gabriel feels perfect to replace the reliability of Bo Nix.

7. Texas
The Longhorns had to dip into the portal to replenish their supply of pass-catchers, and season-ending injuries to backs C.J. Baxter and Christian Clark are not encouraging. But Steve Sarkisian has proven adept at choosing skill players in the portal, and this could be the best Texas offensive line in almost 20 years. If the edge rushers — including UTSA transfer Trey Moore — can wreak havoc on opposing offenses, the Longhorns should be able to compete for the SEC and national titles.

8. Ole Miss
When no less an authority than Nick Saban says the Rebels have improved their lines of scrimmage through the transfer portal to a level that should make them competitive with Georgia and Alabama, we probably should believe him.

9. Michigan
I realize the Wolverines lost their head coach, their offensive line, their starting QB and their best receiver to the NFL after winning the national title. But I have faith in new head coach Sherrone Moore’s ability to cultivate a good offensive line with players that have more experience than you’d think considering all Michigan lost. I also know thet having the nation’s best defensive tackle tandem (Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant) travels.

10. Notre Dame
The season-ending injury to starting left tackle Charles Jagusah was a blow, but remember that Jagusah himself had only started one game (last season’s Sun Bowl). The Fighting Irish have recruited well for years along the offensive line. What could make the difference this year — on top of a deep, experienced defense — is a more robust receiving corps that should give Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard more options than Sam Hartman had last year.

11. Tennessee
Surprised to see the Volunteers here because the AP and coaches’ polls have them ranked lower? My supposition is that this will be the best defense of the Josh Heupel era (led by edge rusher James Pearce Jr. and a deep line) and that sophomore QB Nico Iamaleava will allow Tennessee to run a far more diverse offense than last year’s starter Joe Milton did.

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Boise State
Coach Spencer Danielson’s team returns star back Asthon Jeanty and a lot of the group that circled the wagons and came back to win the Mountain West following the midseason firing of Andy Avalos last season. Maddux Madsen just won the QB job. The Broncos probably don’t have to beat Oregon to wind up in this spot, but it would make a huge difference. Adding Oregon State and Washington State to the schedule definitely helps.

First (Power) Four Out

We’re stealing this whole-cloth from our basketball brethren, though four left out of 12 hits different than four left out of 68.

Penn State : The Nittany Lions would have made this version of the CFP six times since 2016 had this version existed. If they actually wound up here, the fanbase would melt down.

Miami : This would be the best Miami has finished in a long time. But given Miami’s roster talent and relatively manageable schedule, this probably would be considered an underachievement.

Missouri : The Tigers bring back an excellent offense. To move into the numbered portion of this list, we’ll need to see that they’ve replenished significant losses (players and coaches) on defense.

Utah : QB Cam Rising led the Utes to back-to-back Pac-12 titles during his last healthy seasons. Will he have to win a Big 12 title to get Utah into the CFP, or could the Big 12 get an at-large team into the bracket?

Group of Two

These potential Group of 5 champs could challenge for the No. 12 seed.

USF : The Bulls should be competitive for the American Athletic conference title, and they have two opportunities (at Alabama and vs. Miami) to add a signature win.

Appalachian State : The Mountaineers play Clemson and Liberty out of conference and then face a relatively deep Sun Belt.

The Projected Bracket

No. 8 Ole Miss hosts No. 9 Michigan
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in Rose Bowl

No. 5 Alabama hosts No. 12 Boise State
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in Fiesta Bowl

No. 7 Texas hosts No. 10 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in Sugar Bowl

No. 6 Oregon hosts No. 11 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Florida State in Peach Bowl

The rest of the bubble

I’m workshopping a lot of this on the fly, but I think the best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Clemson, N.C. State, Louisville
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Oklahoma State, Arizona
SEC: LSU, Oklahoma

Potential Win-And-In conference champs:

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big Ten: None
Big 12: West Virginia, UCF, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: UTSA, Memphis, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Northern Illinois
Mountain West: UNLV, San Diego State, Fresno State
Sun Belt: James Madison, Coastal Carolina

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