Penn State-West Virginia predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

MORGANTOWN — Penn State- West Virginia game day is here. The Nittany Lions arrived in town Friday night for today’s Noon kick on FOX. Head coach James Franklin’s team starts 2024 at No. 8 in The Associated Press top 25 and at No. 9 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. The Mountaineers are unranked but did receive votes and aim to upset Saturday’s visitors, which would certainly move them into next week’s rankings. The spread is set at PSU -8 with an over/under betting total of 51.5. Head coach James Franklin’s team aims to extend its winning streak over WVU to six games by toppling sixth-year head coach Neal Brown’s team in the opener for the second consecutive season.

“Third and fourth downs were critical last year,” Brown said this week. “Every play matters but there are some that are weighted a little heavier. And some third and fourth downs, we didn’t take advantage and they did. And they were better than us last year. We didn’t play as well when it came winning time, but they were better. So we’ll see how the last year has treated us.”

Penn State is 21-11 straight up all-time in road season openers. Will it cover this week? And will the total go over or under? Our picks roundup takes a closer look.

Computer model picks for Penn State-West Virginia

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 34-20 for Penn State. That would be a cover for the Lions. It’s also a pick for the over.

Sportsline sees similarly to Connelly in terms of a cover for the road team while the over hits. It predicts a 37-17 PSU triumph.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 30-22 Lions win. It puts the outcome right around the spread and total.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a WVU upset. It calls for a one-point Mountaineers win and puts the total at 49.

Lions-Mountaineers picks from a national perspective

At The Athletic, Bruce Feldman calls for a Penn State win but Mountaineers cover by a final score of 20-17.

“It’ll be fascinating to see what the Nittany Lions offense looks like under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki,” Feldman writes. “Even though quarterback Drew Allar isn’t Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean, he can still run some version of the option and do enough to keep defenses guessing. Quarterback Garrett Greene will keep the Mountaineers in this one throughout with his wheels and playmaking skills.”

For College Football News, Pete Fiutak predicts a 26-20 Nittany Lions victory.

Bill Bender of the Sporting News calls for a PSU win and cover by a final score of 31-20. David Kenyon of Bleacher Report agrees with the winner but disagrees on the cover. He sees a 31-27 Lions triumph, with WVU staying inside of the number.

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-West Virginia

At PennLive , its coverage team unanimously calls for the Nittany Lions to win and cover in Morgantown.

“The environment in Morgantown will be hostile as the Nittany Lions travel for what could be their toughest road test of the 2024 season,” the outlet’s Johnny McGonigal writes. “But I have faith in the defense to keep Greene and these tailbacks relatively in check. Look for Drew Allar and Penn State’s own running game to hit on a few explosive plays and pull away late.”

Mark Wogenrich of SI picks Penn State to win a tight 24-21 contest. Frank Bodani of the York Daily Record sees it differently. He calls for a big Lions triumph by a final score of 29-14.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Mountaineers

Nate Bauer: Penn State: 27, West Virginia: 17

Sean Fitz: Penn State: 34, West Virginia: 17

Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State: 31, West Virginia: 21

Matt Herb: Penn State: 24, West Virginia: 20

Greg Pickel: Penn State: 34, West Virginia: 21

Ryan Snyder: Penn State: 31, West Virginia: 24

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