ESPN insiders debate potential importance of USC vs. LSU result in at-large College Football Playoff picture

USC and LSU capped off the first weekend of the college football season with one of the most exciting matchups of Week 1 on Sunday. As a touchdown-scoring drive in the final minute of the game for the Trojans gave them a 27-20 statement win to start off the season.

A Week 1 game between two ranked, non-conference opponents always comes with big stakes. But on ESPN’s Get Up on Monday morning, host Mike Greenberg sparked a discussion with Heather Dinich, Joey Galloway, Paul Finebaum, and Marcus Spears about how the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff makes those stakes even higher for the Tigers and Trojans.

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“It does, it’s like the NCAA tournament where are you in, or are you not?” Dinich asked. “If you’re not, it’s a failed season and I think that’s the same as college football progresses towards these larger brackets.”

“But I agree with Joey, this said more about USC and Lincoln Riley than it was an indictment on Brian Kelly ,” she added. “Remember, his first year they lost that season opener at Florida State . Went on to play in the SEC Championship game. People also need to realize, with the SEC and the Big Ten expanding to where they are now, teams are going to lose more games. How does the selection committee evaluate that? These two teams could be fighting for an at-large bid, Greeny, if they don’t win their conferences. This head to head result is going to matter.”

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Along with the 12-team playoff, nationwide conference realignment has made the Big Ten and the SEC stronger and deeper than ever before. With many curious about how many teams from each conference will be able to make the cut.

With that in mind, Greenberg asked Finebaum if he feels that LSU is still a top five team in the SEC with a chance of making the postseason following Monday’s crucial loss.

“Greeny, you may be generous. When you think about what’s ahead of them with Missouri , and Alabama , and Ole Miss , Texas , and Georgia , they’re probably right now at at six or maybe even seven with Tennessee there,” Finebaum said. “So for people around the country, [who] look at this and go this is a devastating shot. This really is about Southern Cal maybe being on the road back under Lincoln Riley after missing a year. It’s about LSU maybe on life support for the playoffs.”

The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives LSU a 6% chance of making the College Football Playoff following their loss to USC, with the Trojans now sitting at 24% odds which is 14th best in the country. Making LSU’s fifth straight Week 1 loss potentially the most devastating of the last half-decade.

“And quite frankly, I don’t think LSU was a playoff team anyway, and that’s including four, maybe five from the SEC. So this is just more internally frustrating for Brian Kelly, who is, as everyone knows, one of the biggest coaches in the country. He left, Notre Dame to go to LSU to do what? Win a national championship,” Finebaum said.

LSU alumni Marcus Spears also reacted to the loss for the Tigers, putting the magnitude of the expanded CFP into perspective despite there being plenty of football left in the season.

“It’s just devastating news, because Paul might be right and it’s unfortunate that I’m sitting in Week 1, and I don’t want to panic, because I know college football is [as] crazy as it gets when it comes to how a season goes,” Spears said. “You’re dealing with young men, with older men now than normal, but young men still that can change from week to week. I think this team will get better. I’m with Joey as far as them getting better and Heather as well. But Heather brought up a great point too.”

“How do you determine the head to head?” Spears asked. “Remember too, I think this, it’s a bigger indictment on programs like LSU with a 12-team playoff not to get into the playoff. When it was four, you could make it [a case], well, you know, they were close — but when you go to 12 and you’re a program like LSU, and you’re not one of the top 12 teams in the country to get into the playoffs, to try to complete for a championship, those coaching jobs become more hot seater than normal.”

LSU is one of the handful of teams in the country with annual national championship expectations, which will be fascinating to watch develop throughout the season with the expanded College Football Playoff seemingly making each regular season game more meaningful than ever before.

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