No. 11 Tennessee has a 46.3% chance to beat No. 7 Alabama Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium, according to ESPN analytics. The Vols are a three-point home underdog against the Crimson Tide for the 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time kickoff on ABC.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) is ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s Football Power Index and No. 9 in ESPN’s SP+ metric . The Vols dropped five spots to No. 14 in ESPN’s weekly power rankings, after dropping three spots in the updated Associated Press Top 25 on Sunday.
ESPN’s Playoff Predictor gives Tennessee a 46% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Alabama (5-1, 2-1) has a 69% chance to make the playoff and are ranked No. 3 in the ESPN FPI.
Here are the updated week-by-week win percentages for Tennessee’s remaining schedule, via ESPN’s Matchup Predictor:
No. 7 Alabama
Tennessee’s chance to win: 46.3%
October 19 | Home | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Alabama beat Georgia 41-34 in a thriller at Bryant-Denny Stadium three weeks ago, climbed to No. 1 in the Associated Press Top 25, then was stunned at Vanderbilt in a 40-35 loss in Nashville. The Crimson Tide bounced back with a 27-25 home win over South Carolina last week. They beat Western Kentucky (63-0) and South Florida (34-16) over the first two weeks, then went to Wisconsin for a 42-10 win.
Kentucky
Tennessee’s chance to win: 85.8%
November 2 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD
Kentucky stunned then-No. 6 Ole Miss 20-17 three weeks ago in Oxford, only to turn around and lose 20-13 at home against Vanderbilt on Saturday coming off a bye week. UK over the first three weeks beat Southern Miss 31-0 at home to open the season, got throttled by South Carolina 31-7 in Lexington, then nearly upset then-No. 1 Georgia in a 13-12 loss.
Mississippi State
Tennessee’s chance to win: 91.7%
November 9 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD
Mississippi State lost 41-31 at Georgia on Saturday, after going to No. 1 Texas and losing 35-13 on September 28. State started the season with 56-7 win over Eastern Kentucky, but has since lost five straight games. It started with a 30-23 road loss at Arizona State before back-to-back home losses, 41-17 to Toledo and 45-28 to Florida.
No. 5 Georgia
Tennessee’s chance to win: 38.0%
November 16 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD
Georgia rallied from down 28-0 to take a late lead at Alabama, only to give it up in the final two minutes in the 41-34 loss. The Bulldogs since then have bounced back with home wins over Auburn (31-13) and Mississippi State (41-31). They beat Clemson 34-3 to open the season and beat Tennessee Tech 48-3 in the home opener. Georgia had to escape Kentucky with a 13-12 win on September 14.
UTEP
Tennessee’s chance to win: 99.0%
November 23 | Home | 1 p.m. ET | SECN+/ESPN+
UTEP is 0-6 with losses at Nebraska (40-7), at home to FCS Southern Utah (27-24), at Liberty (28-10), at Colorado State (27-17), at home against Sam Houston State (41-21) and at Western Kentucky (44-17). The Miners are ranked No. 130 (out of 134) this week in the ESPN Football Power Index .
Vanderbilt
Tennessee’s chance to win: 77.4%
November 30 | Away | 12-1 p.m. ET | SEC Network
Vanderbilt lost 36-32 at Georgia State and 30-27 at Missouri, but the Commodores are suddenly rolling after a 40-35 home win over Alabama and a 20-13 win at Kentucky. Vanderbilt started 2-0 win wins over Virginia Tech and Alcorn State 55-0, before the back-to-back losses.
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