ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Top 12 rankings after Week 8
By Barkley Truax,
4 hours ago
College football will have a new No. 1 heading into Week 9 after Georgia defeated top-ranked Texas 30-15 on Saturday.
However, that was far from the only game that had College Football Playoff implications. Following a Week 8 slate that featured both upsets and blowout performances throughout the top 12. ESPN’s Heather Dinich predicted how the selection committee will rank those 12 teams after another interesting week across the nation.
Notably, Dinich’s list is a prediction of how the selection committee will rank these teams. When the final seedings are released, they will be determined by seeing the top four conference champions getting a first round bye. The fifth-ranked conference champions will get an auto-bid but no first-round bye. The seven at-large bids will then be determined by the rankings.
It was argued that Oregon could have been put at No. 1 last week over Texas after its 32-31 win over Ohio State in Week 7. However, the Ducks appear to be the team to beat in the CFP race through eight weeks.
They defeated Purdue handily on Friday, which Dinich believes won’t give them bonus points from the committee but proved they can be consistant, especially on a short week after the Ducks’ biggest win of the regular season.
Oct 19, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Trevor Etienne (1) runs the ball against the Texas Longhorns during the first half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Patzke-Imagn Images
Georgia is once again the talk of college football after Saturday’s win on the road at Texas. Now boasting wins over both the Longhorns and Clemson — both of whom are on this list — the Bulldogs are once again in the mix for a first-round bye in the playoffs.
To Dinich, the victory over Texas will help the committee overlook the loss to Alabama , who were defeated by Tennessee on the road in Week 8. She argued the main reason why the Bulldogs are not the clear No. 1 is because Oregon is still undefeated, as wins over Clemson and Texas are likely more attractive than the Ducks’ wins over Ohio State and Boise State .
Georgia will have the head-to-head advantage over Texas in the eyes of the committee for the rest of the regular season, but the Longhorns’ loss to the Bulldogs only dropped them two spots after coming in at No. 1 last week.
The best wins on Texas’ resume are to three-loss Michigan and Oklahoma teams, and it doesn’t appear they’ll play another ranked opponent until the regular season finale against Texas A&M . Texas could win out, which would likely put them in a rematch with Georgia. Still, their path to a first-round bye is slightly more difficult after Week 8.
Ohio State was idle in Week 8 as they regrouped following the loss to Oregon traveling 2,000 miles to Eugene in the first-time-ever Big Ten matchup. Still, the Buckeyes rank in both the top 10 in offensive and defensive effeciency, which Dinich calls “trademark statistics,” for successful playoff teams.
However, with their best win being against a 4-2 Iowa team, the Nov. 2 matchup at the still-undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions has now become must-win for Ohio State. Before that, they’ll look to take care of Nebraska at home on Saturday as they shoot for a Big Ten title game rematch against the Ducks.
Miami won its 52-45 shootout against Louisville on Saturday as quarterback Cam Ward turned in another big-time performance in Week 8. However, the ‘Canes defense has not done him many favors since ACC play began last month.
Despite being 3-0 in conference play, they’ve given up 117 points in their last three games and none of their opponents have been ranked in the top 25. The good news for Miami — it appears as though they’ve cleared the toughest test left on their schedule after winning against the Cardinals. They likely won’t play a ranked team until the ACC Championship game in December.
Penn State head coach James Franklin (Photo credit: Steve Manuel/BWI)
Penn State was idle in Week 8 and remains undefeated and atop the Big Ten stadings alongside Oregon. However, they fell three spots from where they were slotted after last week’s overtime victory on the road at USC.
Dinich explained that the Nittany Lions aren’t being punished for not playing in Week 8, but so much happened during the weekend that they were forced to move back due to the movement around them. Taking on Ohio State on Nov. 2 will best the test that determines whether or not Penn State can hang with some of the best teams in the Big Ten.
LSU has rattled off six-straight wins since dropping the season-opener against USC . They’ve added quality road wins against South Carolina and Arkansas to their resume since SEC play started. The committee does consider common opponents, and Tennessee ‘s loss on the road to Arkansas is likely considered in the decision to have the Tigers ahead of the Vols ahead of Week 9.
Despite this, USC has lost its last four games and with LSU also owning wins over Nicholls and South Alabama, which Dinich says does not help their playoff resume. A second big-time win over a ranked SEC team appears to be the only thing keeping them from jumping into the top five. Luckily for LSU, they get that shot this weekend against Texas A&M.
Tennessee’s win against Alabama in Knoxville was exactly what the Vols needed after their slow start to SEC play — a quality win over a ranked opponent. However, the committee factors in how teams win, and Tennessee committed 11 penalties (which lost them 95 yards) and turned the ball over three times.
Even if Tennessee loses to Georgia on. Nov. 16, the Vols have a case to make the playoff with an at-large bid because Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee would have all beaten one another.
Like LSU, Clemson has won six-straight games since losing its season opener. The loss to Georgia looks a lot better after the Bulldogs beat Texas on the road in Week 8, but even more the Tigers have looked every bit the part of a College Football Playoff team down the stretch this season.
The downside, Clemson’s Week 8 win against Virginia is the first time the Tigers have a victory over an opponent with a winning record this season. They’ll face more formidable foes come November with Louisville, Virginia Tech and Pitt (all above .500), however, a second loss (without winning the ACC) would be devastating to their at-large chances.
BYU has the No. 2 strength of record metric (via ESPN) in the country behind Oregon — and they’re still undefefated after Week 8. However, the ride to the College Football Playoff and Big 12 title games will get rocky from here on out. Three of the Cougars’ final five games this season will be on the road, including a road trip to UCF in Week 9 which the Knights are favored in.
It’s arguably the toughest game they have left this season and with convincing victories against Kansas State and SMU , coupled with being the last undefeated team in the Big 12 — it’s becoming more clear that the Cougars are the team to beat in the conference this season.
Curt Cignetti is a proven winner, and that has not changed during his first year at Indiana . The Hoosiers have yet to be tested and have scored at least 40 points in its last six games. The rise of quarterback Kurtis Rourke has aided them through the program’s historic start.
The Hoosiers only issue is that they ranked 112 in strength of schedule and do not have any wins over ranked teams. Moreover, they don’t play Oregon or Penn State during the reguar season, so Indiana’s Nov. 23 matchup against Ohio State may prove to be must-win in the eyes of the committee.
Ashton Jeanty has taken the nation by storm as he continues his push for the 2024 Heisman Trophy. Meanwhile, his Boise State Broncos are dominating the Mountain West Conference and with a close loss on the road at Oregon being the team’s only blemish, the Broncos seem to be many analyst’s pick to make the College Football Playoffs as the highest-ranked non-power conference team.
Still, Boise State doesn’t have another opportunity to earn a statement victory this season. Their toughest game left comes on Friday against UNLV , so they will likely have to win out to ensure their spot in the intitial field of 12 in the College Football Playoff.
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