Michigan football’s outlook tumbles in latest FPI update

The Michigan Wolverines head into Michigan State week and the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy sitting at 4-3 on the season and a 2-2 record in Big Ten play. With a two-game losing streak heading into the final five games of the regular season, some of the advanced metrics have been updated to reflect the six-game stretch.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with a 5.9-6.1 record this season, moving down five spots to the metric’s No. 38 team in the country. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.

A few other FPI numbers of note are a 0.1% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 0.1% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 0.0% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 2 of its 5 remaining games, according to FPI. The metric suggests a higher likelihood of losses vs. Oregon, at Indiana and at Ohio State.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections

Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 81st): 30-10 W (1-0)
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (2nd): 31-12 L (1-1)
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (109th): 28-18 W (2-1)
Sept. 21 vs. USC (15th): 27-24 W (3-1, 1-0 B1G)
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (45th) : 27-24 W (4-1, 2-0 B1G)
Oct. 5 at Washington (39th): 27-17 L (4-2, 2-1 B1G)
Oct. 19 at Illinois (55th): 21-7 L (4-3, 2-2 B1G)
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (62nd) : 67.1% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (8th): 22.8% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (11th) : 17.3% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (78th) : 78.5% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (1st) : 6.1% chance of victory

What’s next for the Wolverines?

Michigan hosts Michigan State on Saturday night in Ann Arbor in the third-straight primetime game in the series, set for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Big Ten Network. The Wolverines are currently set as a 5.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 40.5 total points.

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