Oregon hires new state economist with Wall Street background

Construction at the Oregon Capitol in Salem continues as budget writers work inside. (Amanda Loman/Oregon Capital Chronicle)

A longtime Wall Street analyst is poised to take over as Oregon’s chief economist, producing the quarterly forecasts lawmakers rely on to craft the state budget – and that determine whether Oregonians receive a hefty tax rebate through the state’s unique kicker law.

Carl Riccadonna will take over as the state’s top economist on Monday, the Oregon Department of Administrative Services announced Wednesday. He succeeds state economist Mark McMullen, who left in May to join the Common Sense Institute, a libertarian-leaning think tank.

As chief economist, Riccadonna will lead a team of analysts who produce quarterly forecasts for the state, analyzing economic trends and how they’ll affect the state’s tax revenues. Lawmakers use those forecasts, particularly the forecast issued in May of odd-numbered years, to decide what they can afford to spend on government programs.

Economic forecasts are especially complicated in Oregon because of the kicker. If a forecast is too optimistic, lawmakers could find themselves having to slash spending partway through the two-way budget cycle, as they would in any other state.

But if a forecast is too conservative, the state is stuck paying out large sums as a kicker, leaving less money available for government services in the next budget. Under the kicker law, if state tax revenues come in more than 2% higher than forecasted, the excess money is returned to taxpayers when they file their tax returns. Oregon paid out a record-breaking $5.6 billion kicker this spring, and the latest forecast issued last week shows the state is on track for a $1 billion kicker in 2026.

Riccadonna has spent the past two years as the chief U.S. economist for the market strategy and economics division of multinational bank BNP Paribas. He previously spent 13 years at Deutsche Bank and worked as the chief U.S. economist for Bloomberg.

Berri Leslie, director of the Department of Administrative Services and state chief operating officer, praised Riccadonna’s experience in a statement.

“Economic forecasts are critical to the work that we do and having someone with Carl’s expertise and background will benefit people all across the state.”

McMullen worked for the state for 14 years before leaving in May. Josh Lehner, his deputy who served as interim economist, worked for the state for 16 years and announced his own departure last week.

Riccadonna will earn $17,016 monthly, or just over $204,000 a year.

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