Oregon unemployment rate ticks up to 4.1%

Oregon’s statewide unemployment rate ticked up another notch in January, when it rose from 4% in December to 4.1%.

The national rate was at 3.7% both months.

“Still, that is a low unemployment rate by historical standards in Oregon,” Gail Krumenauer, Employment Department economist, told reporters during a virtual briefing on Wednesday, March 6.

Comparable records go back to 1976.

Since October 2021, the statewide rate has hovered in a range between a record-tying 3.4% and 4.2%. Oregon recorded a record-low rate of 3.4% in the final months of 2019 and early 2020 before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, when the rate shot up to a one-month high of 13.2% in April 2020.

Nonfarm jobs in January dropped by 4,900 after a revised December gain of 1,900.

Oregon’s job growth was close to flat in the 12 months ending in January, with a decline of .2%. Krumenauer said a surge of job growth early in the year was followed by months of gains offset by months of losses. At the national level, U.S. jobs grew by 1.9% and rose in every month of that period.

Losses and gains

Specifics in the department’s January report:

January’s losses were largest in professional and business services, 1,700 jobs; leisure and hospitality, 1,600; other services, 1,400, transportation, warehousing, and utilities, 1,200, and construction, 600. Gains in January were largest in health care and social assistance, 1,100 jobs, and manufacturing, 500.

Over the most recent 12 months, jobs edged lower. Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 4,900 jobs, or .2%, between January 2023 and January 2024. The private sector cut 15,200 jobs, or .9%, over the most recent 12-month period.

Job losses in four major industries stood out, each down by between 3,700 and 9,500 jobs. These industries are information, professional and business services, manufacturing, and retail trade. Five other major industries had smaller losses, between 700 and 2,200 jobs. In contrast, health care and social assistance was up 13,400 jobs, or 4.8%, while government was up 10,300 jobs, or 3.4%, in the 12 months through January.

Annual revisions indicate less robust construction employment than originally estimated. Construction employed 116,700 in January, which was close to its head count during each of the past 18 months.

The professional and business services sector was also revised lower, showing that the industry contracted by 9,500 jobs, or 3.6%, in the most recent 12 months. Over-the-year job declines occurred in each of this major industry’s three components: administrative and waste services, 5,800 jobs; professional and technical services, 3,000, and management of companies and enterprises, 700.

Vacancies still high

Krumenauer did say that in the department’s most recent survey of job vacancies for the fourth quarter of 2023, employers reported 65,000 vacancies, down from an average of 73,000 earlier in 2023.

The department has conducted such surveys since 2013. In 2022, during the recovery from the pandemic, that number neared a record 100,000 vacancies.

“So in Oregon, like the United States, we have seen job vacancies come down from those record highs in 2022,” she said. “But they remain above pre-pandemic levels.”

The sector with the largest number vacancies: Private health care and social assistance. This sector has been a consistent leader since the department started conducting these surveys in 2013. Other major vacancy sectors among 200 occupations, according to Krumenauer: Truck drivers, sales, construction workers and electricians.

Between the latest quarterly forecast by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis on Feb. 7 and its projection for the first quarter of 2025, Krumenauer said: “We are continuing to anticipate slow growth,” akin to the pattern in 2023.

Future outlook

The Office of Economic Analysis, whose economists prepare the quarterly forecasts, foresee future job growth in Oregon as a result of the federal grants now being released for domestic semiconductor manufacturing and scientific research, development of carbon-free energy and energy-efficiency measures, and public works such as the Interstate 5 bridge replacement across the Columbia River between Portland and Vancouver, Washington.

But Krumenauer said those jobs are more likely to materialize in Oregon’s economy in 2025 and 2026.

For example, the bridge replacement has been awarded $600 million by the U.S. Department of Transportation — and is likely to get more — but actual construction of a project now estimated at $6 billion and running awaits completion of a supplemental environmental impact statement required for major federal actions. Construction is envisioned to start in 2026.