UCF College Football Preview 2024: Key Players, Game Schedule, Season Predictions

UCF College Football Preview 2024

UCF has everything in place to be a Big 12 powerhouse. It just might take a little longer than expected, and that’s okay.

A dominant force in the American Athletic Conference, UCF rolled through six straight winning seasons. Throw in the time in Conference USA, and it had seven seasons with double-digit wins in 16 seasons, and three more campaigns with nine victories.

And then Power Five reality came to breakfast.

As Cincinnati and Houston found out, too, there’s a difference between winning one or three games against high-conference teams, and getting hit by the weekly body blows of dealing with the talent and resources of the power leagues.

UCF played ten Power Five programs in five seasons from 2018 to 2022. It went 5-5 against them. Counting the bowl loss to Georgia Tech, UCF played ten Power Five programs last season and went 3-7 - 6-7 overall - and two of those wins were against Cincinnati and Houston.

But that’s not anything to get into a twist over.

Utah won 79 games over an eight-year stretch from 2003 to 2010 as a Mountain West powerhouse. It went 18-19 in its first three seasons in the Pac-12. And then Utah turned into a consistent Power Five monster.

TCU went 68-11 in its seven seasons as a Mountain West program. It went 11-14 in its first two seasons in the Big 12. And then it went 22-3 in its next two years.

It’s a program with the fundamentals in place, and the will, to be amazing - this is a Power Four program. UCF will get there. It might take one more year considering all the new parts in the starting mix, but it’ll get there.

UCF Football Preview 2024: Offense

- The offense worked. It was fourth in the nation in third-down conversion percentage, fourth in the nation in rushing, and eighth in total offense.

So where was the problem?

When the running game wasn’t dominant, the team didn’t win, going 0-5 when it didn’t get to at least 220 yards. It’ll have no problem getting at least that many in most games.

KJ Jefferson isn’t as quick or slippery as former QB John Rhys Plumlee, but the big Arkansas transfer ran for over 1,600 yards and 17 touchdowns over the last three seasons. He hit 65% of his throws over his five years with the program, and now he’s bringing that to the Knight attack.

Leading rusher RJ Harvey returns after tearing off 1,416 yards and 16 touchdowns, former Toledo star Peny Boone is expected to be a part of the fun, and second-leading rusher Johnny Richardson will be a key part of the rotation.

- There’s a little bit of shuffling going on with the line, but it’ll be great again for the offensive style. Marcellus Marshall is a good one at either tackle or guard, Caden Kitler should settle in at center, and Wes Dorsey from WKU should slide into a tackle job. The transfer portal is also helping with the depth.

- In this offense it’s the job of the receivers to crank up big things down the field. Top receiver Javon Baker is gone, but second-leading target Kobe Hudson is back after averaging over 20 yards per grab with a team-high eight scores. Xavier Townsend was third on the team with 33 catches and Auburn transfer Ja’Varrius Johnson is stepping into the slot.

UCF Football Preview 2024: Defense

- The defense was horrible against the run and had too many meltdowns, but it was strangely in the middle of the pack in a year of rough runs for Big 12 defenses. The team was 6-1 when allowing 26 points or fewer and 0-6 when giving up more, and now it’s up to the transfer portal to be a whole lot better.

- The big improvement starts with what should be a great front four. Miami transfer Nyjalik Kelly was a wonderful get for the edge with strong pass rusher Malachi Lawrence on the other side. The tackle combination of Lee Hunter, Ricky Barber, John Walker, and Matthew Alexander are all back for the inside.

The linebackers are all transfers. Josiah Pierre is a veteran from Texas Tech who made 133 tackles and five sacks in three season, and Vanderbilt’s Ethan Barr is taking over in the middle after making 219 stops in four years.

The star of the bunch is Cincinnati hybrid Deshawn Pace - he’s a safety playing linebacker, and sometimes vice-versa. He’s an all-around playmaker who came up with 236 tackles with six picks and 25.5 tackles for loss over the last three seasons.

- The transfers are all over the secondary, too. S Demari Henderson and CB Brandon Adams are back - Henderson was terrific last year - but everyone else is coming from somewhere else, including all of the top reserves.

Key To The UCF Football Season

The run defense has to hold up.
Again, the running game has to be dominant on a regular basis with 220 yards or more, but that’s a lock with all the talent in the backfield. The defensive front has a slew of good parts, but it has to be better.

UCF was 2-7 when allowing over 100 yards on the ground, and 4-0 when giving up fewer. The D allowed three yards or fewer in all four wins.

UCF Key Player

Ricky Barber, DT Sr.
Outstanding in 2022, he was a disruptive force as one of the best tackles in the country at making big things happen behind the line. Last season he got banged up and wasn’t quite the same, but if he’s back to form the defensive front could be among the best in the Big 12.

UCF Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: KJ Jefferson, QB Sr.
Don’t count out Toledo RB Peny Boone or Cincinnati LB/S Deshawn Pace from this, but Jefferson is the former face of the Arkansas franchise.

The big sixth-year veteran improved into a more consistent passer to go along with his running, but he didn’t get a whole lot of time to work last season with the Hogs. If he’s back to form, he’ll throw for over 2,500 yards and 20 scores and run for at least 600 yards.

Top Transfer Out: Corey Thornton, CB Sr.
It’s not a big area of concern, but the secondary is the one area that didn’t necessarily upgrade. It would’ve been nice to have Thornton back after making 139 tackles with 24 broken up passes over the last four years. Now he’s a Louisville Cardinal.

UCF Key Game

at TCU, Sept. 14
The year of getting up to Big 12 speed is over. UCF has the starting 22 to beat anyone in the conference, the schedule isn’t all that bad, and with home games against Colorado and Cincinnati up next in Big 12 play, there’s a shot to get off to a good start with a win at TCU in the first meeting ever between the two.

10 Best UCF Football Players

1. RJ Harvey, RB Sr.
2. KJ Jefferson, QB Sr.
3. Deshawn Pace, S/LB Sr.
4. Ricky Barber, DT Sr.
5. Kobe Hudson, WR Sr.
6. Lee Hunter, DT Jr.
7. Peny Boone, RB Sr.
8. Demari Henderson, S Jr.
9. Malachi Lawrence, DE Jr.
10. Xavier Townsend, WR/KR Jr.

UCF 2023 Fun Stats

- Fumbles: UCF 13 (lost 7), Opponents 9 (lost 4)

- 2 Point Conversions: Opponents 2-for-5, UCF 0-for-4

- 1st Quarter Scoring: UCF 127, Opponents 57

UCF Football 2024 Win Total Prediction: What to Expect This Season

It’s the good and the bad in the Big 12 without Texas or Oklahoma - every game is winnable for UCF, and for everyone else.

It should be an even conference from top to close to bottom.

Getting Colorado, Cincinnati, and BYU at home help, and games against New Hampshire and Sam Houston early on should help put together a nice base of wins.

Also on the plus side, two of the conference road games - TCU and Arizona State - are against teams that didn’t go bowling last year, and away dates against Iowa State and West Virginia are at least manageable.

Not having to deal with Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas doesn’t hurt, but having to go to Florida in non-conference play is a problem.

There are more than enough winnable games to go bowling, and if it can pull off a win Arizona at home in early November, it’ll go into the finishing kick with a chance for a big conference season.

Set The UCF Win Total At … 7

Likely Wins: New Hampshire, Sam Houston

50/50 Games: Arizona, at Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, at Iowa State, at TCU, Utah, at West Virginia

Likely Losses: at Florida

2024 UCF Football Schedule

Aug 29 New Hampshire
Sept 7 Sam Houston
Sept 14 at TCU
Sept 21 OPEN DATE
Sept 28 Colorado
Oct 5 at Florida
Oct 12 Cincinnati
Oct 19 at Iowa State
Oct 26 BYU
Nov 2 Arizona
Nov 9 at Arizona State
Nov 16 OPEN DATE
Nov 23 at West Virginia
Nov 29 Utah

Missing: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech