Hurricane center keeps eyes on Gulf, Atlantic systems for tropical development

The National Hurricane Center is keeping track of three systems with the potential to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. Sunday tropical outlook, the most likely of those is a tropical wave with shower activity several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles and headed into the Caribbean. That system has changed little in organization all week.

“Some slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday,” forecasters said. “The wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea later this week, where conditions are forecast to become more conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during that time.”

Despite its lack of organization, it could bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to some portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as it moves into the Caribbean on Monday.

Its long-term forecast has it crossing the Caribbean and then potentially moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC gives it a 10% chance of development in the next two days, and 40% chance in the next seven.

Already affecting the U.S. is a broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas and Louisiana coast that continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity.

“This system is expected to linger near the coast for the next several days, and some slow development is possible if it remains offshore,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.”

The NHC gives it a 10% chance of development in the next two days, and 10% chance in the next seven.

The third system is a tropical wave expected to move offshore from the western African coast on Monday.

“Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development throughout the week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has so far produced five named storms: Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Chris, Hurricane Debby and Hurricane Ernesto. The next names on the list are Francine, Gordon and Helene.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s upgraded forecast issued earlier this month calls for 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, with 4-7 that could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.