Potential tropical cyclone advisories issued for Gulf as hurricane center tracks 2 more systems

The National Hurricane Center on Sunday issued a potential tropical cyclone advisory for a Gulf of Mexico system that is forecast to become a hurricane while two other Atlantic systems loom.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday with significant intensification on Tuesday and is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.

The system is located 320 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and is moving northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds at 50 mph, NHC said. The storm’s tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles, NHC said.

“On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday,” forecasters said.

If it were to gain enough energy to become a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Francine.

The Government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch from Barra del Tordo northward to the mouth of the Rio Grande as the potential tropical cyclone six is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall.

“Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and additional watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it an 90% chance to develop in the next two days and 90% in the next seven.

Conditions in the Atlantic have also begun to favor storm formation for a pair of systems.

In the central tropical Atlantic is an elongated area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms showing more signs of organization.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward at around 10 mph through the rest of the week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% in the next seven.

Farther east is a trough of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“This system is expected to move very little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions thereafter are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.”

The NHC gives it a 50% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30. It has had five named systems so far, but none that have formed since what became Hurricane Ernesto initially formed back on Aug. 12.