Hurricane Milton's dizzying ascen t into the record books slacked Tuesday, Oct. 8, but its slip in sustained wind speeds did not dull the briny ruin and heartbreak headed to the Sunshine State.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that Milton will reach the central west coast of Florida late Wednesday or in the predawn darkness of Thursday morning as a major hurricane pumping killer storm surge of up to 15 feet into the state's porous beaches and inlets between Cape Coral and Crystal River.
All of South Florida, including Palm Beach County, is under a tropical storm warning . Palm Beach County officials called for evacuations for people in Zone A — mobile home parks and low-lying areas prone to flooding — Tuesday afternoon. Seven shelters were also opened.
The middle of Milton's forecast track cone, which has remained relatively consistent but ticked slightly south early Tuesday, takes it near the vulnerable Tampa Bay area. In a worse case scenario, Milton could bring an annihilation scenario that National Weather Service meteorologists said would be the most devastating to impact Tampa in more than a century.
"No one in this area has ever experienced a hurricane this strong before," NWS meteorologists in Tampa Bay wrote in a forecast discussion.
As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, Milton was 520 miles southwest of Tampa with high-end Category 4 winds of 155 mph. It was moving east-northeast at 8 mph. The sustained wind speeds were down from a mind-boggling 180 mph on Monday.
All of South Florida is under a flood watch through Thursday morning with heavy rains expected ahead of and associated with Milton. Widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with up to 7 inches in localized areas is expected across most of South Florida through Thursday.
West Palm Beach has a 60% chance of feeling sustained tropical storm force winds from Wednesday evening through Thursday. Sustained winds are considered ones that last 2 minutes or longer. Tornadoes will also be possible in South Florida Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Power outages are likely.
In the Treasure Coast, Martin and St. Lucie counties were under a tropical storm warning Tuesday with Indian River County under a hurricane warning. As with Palm Beach County, continued rainfall through Tuesday is not associated with Milton. Whatever Milton brings will fall on saturated ground, increasing the risk for trees to be uprooted in high winds.
National Weather Service Meteorologist Jessie Schaper said Treasure Coast residents should prepare for Category 1 hurricane conditions or “at least a Tropical Storm.”
Despite some weakening after Milton makes landfall, it is forecast to remain a hurricane as it cuts through the state and into the Atlantic Ocean. The official forecast at 11 a.m. Tuesday had Milton maintaining Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds through at least the middle of the peninsula.
Sustained winds in Palm Beach County could reach up to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
On Tuesday morning, Milton's lowest central pressure — a measure of a storm's power as intense inner winds spiral toward a swirling core — had increased to 924 mb.
More: Palm Beach County is under a tropical storm warning. Here's what to expect
That's up from a shocking 897 mb on Monday, which made it the lowest pressure for an Atlantic hurricane since 2005's Wilma. Since 1979, only three Atlantic basin storms have had pressures lower than Milton at 897. Those were Wilma's 882 mb, Gilbert's 888 mb, and Rita's 895 mb, according to Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.
"There is nothing to be confused about here," said FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan McNoldy in his Hurricane Intel blog . "Yes, you might have 'been through hurricanes before.' But you weren't through the 1921 storm that put water over much of Pinellas County, or the 1848 hurricane that put 15 feet of Gulf water where downtown Tampa is today."
The NHC is forecasting up to 15 feet in areas from Englewood to the Anclote River, which includes Tampa Bay. Areas south of Englewood to Bonita Beach could get up to 12 feet, with spots south of that between 3 and 7 feet.
Sandy Stillwell-Youngquist lives along the Caloosahatchee River in southwest Florida where the coast could see as much as 12 feet of peak storm surge. She's in an evacuation zone but with a storm-hardened home, she's staying put. As an owner of eight restaurants and an inn all on barrier islands she's worried about what Milton will bring and how much it will delay repairs ongoing from Hurricane Ian in 2022.
"We were hoping to reopen by Christmas," she said about Ian-damaged restaurants. "But I think we have a setback."
About 20 Florida counties had issued evacuation orders early Tuesday. That includes inland counties, such as Glades and Okeechobee, where people in low-lying areas or in mobile homes were asked to find shelter elsewhere during the storm.
While traffic leaving Florida's central-west coast was heavy Monday, it cleared up some overnight before getting cramped again after sunrise Tuesday. State officials are using shoulder lanes to help move traffic along and escort fuel trucks to gas stations where long lines were also reported in some areas.
"Please do not wait until the last minute to leave," said Florida Director of Emergency Management Kevin Guthrie.
If Milton makes landfall as a major hurricane it will be the second hit to Florida this season by a Category 3 storm or higher following Hurricane Helene's Category 4 landfall Sept. 26 in the Big Bend region. Only three other years on record have had two major landfalls in Florida. Those include 1950's hurricanes Easy and King, 2004's hurricanes Charley and Jean and 2005's hurricanes Dennis and Wilma.
No years have had three major landfalls in Florida, Klotzbach said. In 2004, Hurricane Ivan technically made landfall in Alabama as a major hurricane although it brought storm surge of 10 to 15 feet along the western portion of Florida's Panhandle, according to the NHC's post storm report.
A storm surge inundation map shows water driving a few miles inland from the immediate coast, especially for communities within the bays and along rivers connected to the Gulf of Mexico, said Cody Fritz, who leads the storm surge unit at the NHC. He said Milton's surge is predicted to be "much worse" for areas within Tampa Bay and adjacent areas to the south compared to Helene.
Milton remained a compact storm early Tuesday with hurricane-force winds that extended 30 miles from its center, and tropical storm-force winds that reached as far as 105 miles. But the wind field is expected to nearly double in size as it closes in on Florida.
"It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents of Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials," said NHC senior hurricane specialist John Cangialosi in a forecast. "Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida."
Treasure Coast Newspapers reporter Corey Arwood contributed to this story.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: NEW: Tropical storm warning, Zone A evacuations issued for Palm Beach County
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