Poll: Harris boosts confidence that Democrats could win the 2024 election

Moving Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket has reinvigorated Democrats’ prospects of winning the White House, according to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll .

Weeks ago, many Democrats were losing confidence that their party’s presumptive nominee, President Joe Biden, would be able to defeat former President Donald Trump. Before Biden left the race, 39 percent of Americans – regardless of who they support – said he stood a chance at winning the election.

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In this latest poll, 48 percent of U.S. adults said they think Harris will win, putting her in a dead-heat with Trump. Another 48 percent of Americans said they think he has the best shot of getting elected.

“Democrats are totally of a different mindset,” said Lee Miringoff, who directs the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “There’s no doubt that the Harris candidacy has unleashed a whole new wave of enthusiasm among Democrats, and in the process has also moved some voters who were either straddling the fence or were in Trump’s column.”

Confidence in Trump’s ability to recapture the presidency has been shaken since a month ago, when 59 percent of voters overall thought he’d win.

“We’ve seen a complete flip of a switch,” Republican strategist Olivia Troye said.

Compared to June, more people also report being satisfied with the candidates for the president. In this latest poll, 47 percent of Americans said they were satisfied with who Democrats and Republicans have put forward, marking a 5 percentage-point increase since earlier in the summer . Still, 50 percent of Americans overall say they are dissatisfied with their options.

For much of his presidential race, Biden struggled to gain momentum among younger voters and voters of color. These latest poll numbers show where Harris has already gained ground and how much further she needs to go to motivate communities to throw their support behind her, Miringoff said.

Harris vs. Trump

If the election were today, 51 percent of U.S. registered voters said they would support Harris and 48 percent said they would back Trump, a gap that narrowly falls within the margin of error.

Here are more takeaways:

• Support for Harris rose 6 percentage points since Biden announced he would exit the race.
• Trump saw a 2 percentage-point jump in support since late July.
• Democrats, Black voters and white women who graduated from college were most likely to support Harris .
• Republicans, white men who did not graduate from college and white Christian evangelicals were most likely to support Trump .

When registered voters were asked to consider a race including third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris’ lead over Trump was diminished, falling just within the margin of error.

• With a wider roster to choose from, 48 percent said they would vote for Harris if the election were today.
• 45 percent said they would back Trump.
• 5 percent of registered voters said they would vote for Kennedy.

Survey interviews with voters concluded before a news story broke that Kennedy had been involved in leaving a dead black bear cub in New York City’s Central Park.

On the issues

The most important quality in a possible president is someone American can trust, according to this latest poll. Overall, 27 percent picked honesty and trustworthiness as an essential characteristic, while 20 percent said they want a strong leader.

In this poll, Americans also were asked which of the two major party candidates they thought would better manage a series of pressing issues.

• On the economy , 51 percent of Americans said Trump would do a better job of leading, while 48 percent said Harris would be do better.
• On abortion , 56 percent of Americans said Harris would do a better job managing the issue, while 41 percent said Trump would.
• On immigration , 52 percent of Americans said Trump would handle the issue best, while46 percent said Harris would.

Less than two weeks out from the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents were split over whether Harris should continue to pursue Biden administration policies or plan to forge a new path for the U.S.

Forty-eight percent of likely Democratic voters said they want Harris to further build upon the work Biden started, while 49 percent said they want Harris to take the country in a new direction. At the moment, Democrats feel largely united behind their future nominee, but as Miringoff warned, it’s too soon to “start measuring the windows for curtains in the White House.”

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on Aug. 1 through 4 that polled 1,613 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 1,513 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, 1,309 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in November’s general election with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points and 717 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.