Poll: Harris narrowly leads Trump, but he's ahead with these key groups

The race for president is a dead heat as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump prepare to meet tonight in Philadelphia for their first – and potentially final – debate, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll . Yet Trump has surpassed Harris with several key constituencies as they prepare for the final sprint of their campaigns.

Among registered voters, Harris leads Trump by 1 point — 49 percent to 48 percent. Her lead grows to 3 points (51 percent to 48 percent) among people who say they will definitely vote in November. Both results are within the margin of error.

Among independent voters, Harris trails Trump 46 percent to 49 percent, a 7-point dip for the Democratic candidate since August and a return to the narrow lead Trump had over President Joe Biden with these voters in July. The 2020 Democratic ticket won independents by 15 points, according to AP VoteCast data.

Republican pollster Whit Ayers called Harris’ dipping support with independents a “warning sign” for the vice president’s campaign.

“She had the honeymoon period,” Ayers said. But as attention on the Democratic ticket fades, and the end of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign further narrowed the presidential field, the turbulence in the race also seems to have settled.

There was a similar 9-point swing since last month among Latino voters, with 51 percent now choosing Trump, versus 47 percent for Harris. It’s a significant bump since 2020, when Trump won support from 35 percent of Latino voters, according to AP VoteCast. But there was also a drop in enthusiasm. Eighty-five percent of Latino voters said they are definitely or likely voting, down 10-points from August.

READ MORE : An inside look at how the PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll is conducted

“Those are two important groups that are likely to be the ones who the campaigns are going to be targeting very heavily throughout the campaign,” said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. “That’s why this debate really matters, because [Harris] needs to get those independent and those Latino and other swing voters to be a more permanent part of her coalition.”

Republican strategist Kevin Madden described the month since Harris secured the Democratic nomination as an “enormous sugar high” for the vice president that has been, up until now, reflected in polling because she was “a new candidate not named Trump or Biden.”

WATCH : Trump is gaining ground with some Black men. Here’s how Harris can change their minds

“This race has snapped back to where it always was, which is a very, very close contest, amongst a very bitterly divided electorate, and that this election is going to be very, very close and it’s going to come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of states,” he added.

Before Biden exited the race in July , his support was dipping among other groups critical to his reelection effort, an erosion that set off alarm bells for Democratic officials and donors who encouraged him to drop out. The new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll suggests Harris may have similar work to do to rebuild the 2020 coalition that propelled her to the vice presidency — specifically with Black and young voters.

Harris maintains a commanding 53-point lead with Black voters — 74 percent say they’d choose her if the election were today. But 24 percent of Black voters support Trump in the latest poll, three times the support he saw in 2020. Black voter enthusiasm – with 85 percent saying they will definitely or likely vote – also dipped 7 points in September, though that change falls within the margin of error.

WATCH: Black women in Georgia discuss their key election issues and Harris’ historic campaign

Harris also has a narrow 2-point lead among voters under 45 years old. This is virtually unchanged since Biden was the presumptive nominee, but her 50 percent support is below the 57 percent Biden won in 2020.

“The Harris campaign knew the minute that she joined this race that this was going to be a tight race,” Democratic strategist Ameshia Cross said. “This is going to be a turnout race. This is going to be a race that is going to be decided by a very small margin of voters. This is not going to be a runaway for either candidate.”

Harris’ support among white voters could help make up for her dips with core Democratic constituencies. She trails Trump by only 3 points with this group, which Republicans won by 12 points in 2020.

Majority say they will watch Harris-Trump debate

Americans will have their first opportunity to see a direct comparison between the two White House hopefuls when Harris and Trump meet Tuesday night for the ABC News Presidential Debate. The first 2024 debate between Biden and Trump was perhaps the most consequential presidential debate in modern history, setting off several weeks of Democratic consternation that pressured Biden to end his campaign .

Expectations are similarly high for the new candidate matchup. More than two-thirds of Americans say they will watch all or most of the debate. Another 23 percent say they will not watch but will pay close attention to news stories about it, while 6 percent say they will not pay any attention to the debate.

“The stakes are really high for this debate,” Cross said. “For [Harris], the stakes are higher just because she has a much higher ceiling to clear than Donald Trump does in terms of expectations.”

It’s not that most voters are likely to be swayed by the debate: Two-thirds of Americans say the event will have little to no effect on their vote for president. But the 14 percent of Americans who say the debate will have a great impact on which candidate they choose includes several groups important to both campaigns, including 32 percent of Black voters, 24 percent of Latino voters and 21 percent of Gen Z/Millennials.

Another 16 percent of Americans say the debate will affect their vote “a good amount.”

While views of the candidates are largely set among voters who have followed this race closely, debates held closer to Election Day usually hold outsized influence among those who may not be “as plugged into politics,” according to Walter.

“The only thing that matters at this point is the 6-8 percent that have yet to make up their mind [and] that live in battleground states because they are going to make or break this election,” Madden said. “If Kamala Harris or Donald Trump have a very bad debate performance that pushes swing voters one way or the other, in a very close race, it could make a difference.”

Campaigns compete to define Harris

Both campaigns have been working overtime to define who Harris would be as president because, as Madden described, the vice president has been a “blank slate” for many voters. That’s been reflected in the “seismic amount” of money Harris has raised and spent on campaign ads , Cross said.

In the month she has been the Democratic nominee, Harris has touted her work in the White House while also rolling out new policy proposals on issues like the economy that distinguish her priorities from the Biden administration.

“We’re not going back” has become a familiar refrain during Harris’ rallies across battleground states, and the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll suggests that her efforts to turn the page may be working.

A majority of Americans (52 percent) say Harris is the candidate who represents change, including 53 percent of independents. Forty-seven percent say Trump is the change candidate.

Harris holds a similar 5-point lead over Trump when voters were asked which candidate cares about people like them.

Fact check : As Trump and Harris prepare to debate, what are they likely to say?

“There’s real benefit in being a change candidate” when polls regularly show a majority of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, Ayers said. “[Harris] looks like change because of her race and gender. She’s still saddled with a lot of the Biden policies, and she’s going to have to figure out a way to be loyal to Biden but still separate herself from him.”

“It’s an interesting dance to dance because she’s still part of the administration,” Cross said of Harris’ efforts to sidestep less popular aspects of the Biden White House, even as Trump’s campaign is trying to “saddle” her with them.

The Trump-Vance campaign has worked to find an attack against Harris that sticks with voters, frequently calling her a “San Francisco liberal.” A plurality of Americans (47 percent), including 50 percent of independents, believe Harris’ policies are too liberal, according to the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, while 41 percent say they are about right. However, a quarter of voters aged 18-29 say Harris is too conservative.

At the same time, 43 percent of voters say Trump’s policies are too conservative, while 43 percent say his views are about right.

Trump leads on trio of high-profile issues

On debate night, the two candidates are expected to exchange jabs on a handful of hot-button topics that are most important to voters. Comparing the candidates head-to-head, Trump is trusted by a majority of Americans to handle immigration, the Middle East and the economy, according to this latest poll.

On the economy, which many polls have shown is the biggest concern for voters, 52 percent of voters give Trump the edge while 48 percent say Harris would handle the economy better. That is unchanged from August, but Harris has narrowed the gap significantly from July, when Biden trailed Trump by 9 points. Among independents, Trump holds a 15-point advantage on the issue.

WATCH: Comparing Trump’s and Harris’ differing ideas on how to boost the economy

As Harris has centered issues of reproductive freedom in her campaign, voters continue to give the vice president the lead over Trump on abortion. Fifty-six percent of voters say she’d better handle the issue, compared to 42 percent who felt the same about Trump, unchanged from a month ago.

Among the less tangible qualities voters are looking for, the two candidates have different strengths. Twenty-seven percent of voters – and 30 percent of independents – say they most value a candidate who is honest and trustworthy. Among these voters, Harris leads Trump by 46 points. Another 22 percent of voters want a president who is a strong leader. With this group, Trump has the edge by 50 points.

For both candidates, making the best impression at the debate on these topics and more could have an impact sooner than November. Early voting begins in several states this month.

“We’re dealing with a very compressed election schedule,” Madden said. “There’s no time to waste.”

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on Sept. 3 through 5 that polled 1,529 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, 1,413 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 1,164 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in November’s general election with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, 367 independents with a margin of error of 6.5 percentage points, 577 Gen Z/Millennials with a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points, 168 Black voters with a margin of error of 9.6 percentage points and 229 Latino voters with a margin of error of 8.2 percentage points.